While National Polls Paint Close Race Among Tories (35%), Grits (33%) and NDP (25%), Top Lines May be Deceiving with Bottom Line found in Regions

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos poll appears to echo other national political polls of late giving the perception of a close race between the three major federal political parties with the Harper government Tories at 35% versus the Trudeau Liberals at 33% and the Mulcair NDP at 25% among decided voters.

The poll conducted for Global News also shows the Green Party led by Elizabeth May at 3% (unchanged) and the Bloc Quйbйcois under Mario Beaulieu at 16% within Quebec (4% nationally). One percent (1%) would vote for some other party, one in ten (9%) voters remains undecided and 6% of respondents would not vote/spoil their ballot.

But while most pundits tend to focus on the national topline horserace numbers, a closer look at how the public opinion map looks in the provinces and regions paints a very different picture--especially important as Canadians vector toward a Federal Election likely in October, 2015.

The bottom line is this: The Trudeau Liberals may sweep the Atlantic Provinces--garnering tremendous support in the seat light Maritimes and pushing their topline number up overall, but they bog down everywhere else in the country and are not even in the hunt in some areas at the moment--with the NDP having a hefty lead in Quebec and the Conservatives leading everywhere else--BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Ontario.

In essence, the polling numbers in the regions and provinces suggest that the Harper Tories are much stronger than they may appear on the topline to some due to vote efficiency, and the Trudeau Liberals appear less robust than they are often portrayed due to vote inefficiency. And what of Mulcair's NDP? They are more substantive than perceived and could be regional or provincial spoilers, once again due to an efficient vote. Here's the specific breakdown of the regional/provincial leaders and followers:

• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%) have a significant lead over the Tories (33%), NDP (19%) and Green Party (4%).
• In Quebec, the NDP (34%) leads the Liberals (27%), Conservatives (21%), Bloc (16%) and Green party (2%).
• In Ontario, the Conservatives (41%) have a five-point lead over the Liberals (36%), while the NDP (19%), Green (3%) and other parties (1%) trail.
• In Manitoba/Saskatchewan, the Conservatives (42%) lead with the Liberals (38%) in follow-up position while the NDP (21%) lags.
• In Alberta, where a provincial election has just been called, the Conservatives (44%) continue to have a sizeable lead over the Liberals (29%), NDP (23%), Green (3%) and other parties (1%).
• In BC, the Conservative s (34%) and NDP (32%) are fighting for top spot, with the Liberals (27%) in tow. The Green (6%) and other parties (1%) trail.

Harper's Approval Rating Strengthens to 47%; Four in Ten (37%) Believe Harper Government Deserves Re-Election...

The poll also revealed that the Prime Minister's approval rating is strengthening. Nearly half (47%) of Canadians `approve' (11% strongly/36% somewhat) of `the performance of the Conservative government under the leadership of Stephen Harper'. This is up from 44% in February of 2014, and 38% in May of 2013 - about the time when Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party.

The Harper government has made the economy its number-one priority since the Great Recession took hold. On this file, a majority (54%) of Canadians `approve' (11% strongly/43% somewhat) of the `Federal Government's overall management of the Canadian economy', up from the 46% who approved in February of 2014.

Canadians are split down the middle about whether or not Canada is heading in the `right direction' (49%) or heading down the `wrong track' (51%). However, compared to July of 2013, more believe things are heading in the right direction (+5), while fewer think things are going down the wrong track (-5).

Despite comparably high approval ratings for an incumbent government and Prime Minister of roughly 9 years, 37% of Canadians believe that the `Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election', up from 32% in February of 2014 and from 30% in July 2013. This figure typically translates closely to the proportion of the vote the incumbent receives on Election Day. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of the vote is likely enough to win the Election - but what isn't clear, particularly with redistribution and more Electoral Districts added to the map, is whether that is enough for a majority government or not.

Conversely, nearly two in three (63%) Canadians believe `it is time for another federal political party to take over', although this is down from 70% two years ago.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 2nd and 7th, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001Canadians (including 915 decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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