Will He Or Won't He?

Toronto, ON --The federal Tories are enjoying a post-budget bounce that has propelled them into majority government territory according to the latest poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for Canwest and Global TV.

The survey, conducted immediately following the second budget delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to the Minority parliament, has 40% of voters--traditionally considered the threshold to garner majority government status-- indicating that they'd support the Conservatives if a federal election were held today. The Tories now lead by a wide margin in every region, except Quebec where they are in a tie for second place with the Liberals.

The positive post-budget bounce may tempt the Prime Minister to call a spring election despite the fact that the poll also shows that 59% of Canadians say they want the opposing parties to pass the budget in order to avoid one.

The Conservatives received the biggest post-budget boost in British Columbia, where their support has grown by 10-points to 44% since March 15. In Ontario, the Tories (43%) have surpassed the Grits (33%) by a comfortable 10-point margin on the strength of a 5-point boost since March 15. In Quebec, the Liberals (26%) and Conservatives (25%) are locked in a 1-point contest to be the federalist alternative to the Bloc (33%), as the Conservatives have improved their support in Quebec by 3-points since March 15. Tory support in Alberta has slipped 7 points since March 15, although the Conservatives retain solid majority support (58%) in their Western stronghold which nearly doubles support for the Liberals (24%), who realized an 8-point improvement since March 15.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives (44%) remain in the lead, despite a 2-point decline since March 15, while the Liberals have suffered a 14-point drop to 17% since March 15. Meanwhile, the NDP has improved its fortunes among Saskatchewan and Manitoba voters to take 21% support in the region, second behind the Conservatives. In addition to their drop in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Liberals (35%) have also suffered a 12-point decline in Atlantic Canada, where they are now the second choice after the Conservatives (40%) whose take has improved slightly (up 1 point). The Liberal decline in Atlantic Canada has primarily benefited the NDP (17%, up 6 points) and the Green Party (5%, up 2 points).

By gender, men favour the Conservatives (43%) over the Liberals (25%) by a 17-point margin. Women are more divided, favouring the Conservatives (36%) over the Liberals (33%) by a relatively slight 3-point margin. The NDP draws roughly equal levels of support from men (15%) and women (14%), as does the Bloc (men: 9%; women: 8%) and Green Party (men: 7%; women: 8%).

Most Canadians (59%) Want Budget Passed To Avoid Spring Election

Three in five Canadians (59%) want their federal MP to vote for the new federal budget and avoid a spring election, while 29% want their federal MP to vote against the budget in order to trigger a spring election.

Half of Liberal (50%) and Bloc voters (51%) and a majority of Green Party voters (57%) say their MP should vote for the budget to avoid a spring election. NDP voters (48%) are more likely to say their MP should vote against the new budget in order to trigger a spring election. Not surprisingly, four in five Conservative voters (81%) say their MP should support the budget to avoid a spring vote.

Canadians Are Twice as Likely to Give the Budget "Two Thumbs Up" (25%) Than "Two Thumbs Down" (12%)

When asked whether they would give the new federal budget a symbolic "two thumbs up" or "two thumbs down", Canadians are more than twice as likely to give it two thumbs up (25%) than to give it two thumbs down (12%). Half of Canadians (50%) say they would give it neither a thumbs up or thumbs down, but would shrug their shoulders.

Conservative (43%) and Bloc voters (23%) are most likely to give the new budget two thumbs up, while NDP voters (23%) more often give the budget two thumbs down.

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

Ipsos
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