Winter Olympics Cool Heat Placed on Harper:
Diversion Gives Harper's Tories (37%) a Boost over Ignatieff's Grits (29%)

Toronto, ON - The Vancouver 2010 Games have given Olympians and Canadians alike the gift of a renewed sense of pride and patriotism, but they also have imparted on Stephen Harper a gift of his own - a diversion from the heat placed on him over the detainee issue and his subsequent decision to prorogue parliament. This diversion of attention has resulted in a boost in the polls for the reigning Conservatives, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper would receive the support of 37% of decided voters (up 3 points from one month ago), while Ignatieff and the Liberals have lost some ground in the polls and would now receive only 29% of the vote (down 2 points) nationally. The Liberals (40%) and Conservatives (37%) are now statistically tied in the seat-rich province of Ontario.

Jack Layton's NDP would receive 16% of the vote (down 1 point) across the country, while the Green Party would garner 7% support (down 1 point). The Bloc rests at 9% nationally (unchanged), which represents 39% of the vote in the province of Quebec (up 2 points).

The data also reveal that the underlying fundamentals of leadership favour Prime Minister Stephen Harper over his opposition rivals. Further, leadership issues for the Liberals may continue into the future as Jack Layton has overtaken Michael Ignatieff in every category of leadership attributes studied.

Nearly one half (46%) of Canadians believe that Stephen Harper would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, an increase of 3 points since this question was last asked nearly one year ago. By comparison, fewer than half as many (21%) believe that Michael Ignatieff, Leader of the Opposition, would make the best Prime Minister, a dramatic drop of 12 points since last year. The biggest gainer is NDP Leader Jack Layton as one in three (33%) believe that he would make the best Prime Minister, up 10 points from last year, now making him second-choice among Canadians.

Stephen Harper also has a leg up on his rivals when it comes to some more specific leadership traits:

• Someone you can trust: Harper (40%, unchanged), Layton (35%, up 10 points), Ignatieff (19%, down 9 points), Duceppe (6%, down 1 point).
• Someone who will get things done: Harper (43%, unchanged), Layton (30%, up 8 points), Ignatieff (21%, down 7 point), Duceppe (6%, down 1 point).
• Someone who has what it takes to lead Canada: Harper (45%, up 2 points), Layton (29%, up 10 points), Ignatieff (22%, down 13 points), Duceppe (4%, up 1 point).
• Someone who has a vision of Canada that you can support: Harper (40%, down 2 points), Layton (32%, up 8 points), Ignatieff (24%, down 6 points), Duceppe (4%, unchanged).
• Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good: Harper (37%, down 1 point), Layton (35%, up 10 point), Ignatieff (22%, down 10 points), Duceppe (5%, down 1 point).
• Someone who is best to manage during tough economic times: Harper (46%, unchanged), Layton (26%, up 9 points), Ignatieff (24%, down 8 points), Duceppe (5%, unchanged).
• Despite trying to shake the label of being someone who has a hidden agenda, Harper (45%, down 3 points) continues to lead in this attribute, although significantly more Canadians now believe that Ignatieff (34%, up 13 points) has a hidden agenda, while fewer feel the same way about Layton (16%, down 9 points) and Duceppe (4%, down 2 points).
• Finally, Layton (41%, up 12 points) leads when it comes to someone who is open to the ideas of others, while Harper (32%, unchanged), Ignatieff (22%, down 12 points) and Duceppe (6%, unchanged) trail.

Politics is an ever-changing game, and many Canadians' impressions of the Party leaders have shifted in the last month, and in most cases not for the better:

• One in ten (12%) say they have an improved impression of Stephen Harper over the last three months, while four in ten (38%) say their impression has worsened (net score: -26).
• One in ten (12%) say their impression of Michael Ignatieff has improved over the last three months, while 29% say that their impression has worsened (net score: -17)
• Two in ten (18%) say they have a more favourable opinion of Jack Layton as a result of the last three months, while one in ten (12%) say it's worsened (net score: +6) making him the only federal leader who has enjoyed an overall boost in impressions.
• One in ten (9%) Quebecers say their impression of Gilles Duceppe has improved, while 12% say it's worsened (net score: -3).
• One in ten (7%) have a more favourable impression of Elizabeth May, while the same proportion (7%) has a worsened opinion of the Green Party leader (net score: 0).

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from February 18 to 22, 2010:

For the survey dealing with voting intentions and impressions of leaders, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For the survey dealing with best prime minister and leadership traits, a national sample of 1,057 adults from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
President and CEO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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