Yawn: Same Old, Same Old
If an election were to be held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Stephen Harper would receive 35% of the vote among decided voters, unchanged from the end of September. In comparison, Michael Ignatieff's Liberals would receive 29% of the vote, also unchanged since Ipsos Reid's last poll. The NDP, led by Jack Layton, would receive 16% of the vote (up 4 points), while Elizabeth May's Green Party would garner 11% support (down 1 point). The Bloc sits at 8% support nationally (down 3 points), which equates to 35% of Quebecers. Nearly one in ten (8%) voters remain undecided.
The Conservatives at 35% support compared to the Liberals at 29% could be considered a "default vote support" between these two parties, as these two exact proportions have appeared a number of times throughout this year (July 2010, May 2010 and April 2010). Furthermore, neither the Conservatives nor the Liberals have strayed away from this "default vote support" by more than two points either way since the start of 2010, well within any swing that can be accounted for by each poll's margin of error.
In Quebec, the Bloc (35%) continues to hold a solid lead over the second-place Liberals (24%), while the Conservatives' (19%), NDP (11%) and Green Party (10%) lag behind. In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (38%) hold a narrow lead over the Liberals (34%), with the NDP (17%) and the Green Party (10%) well behind.
In trying to account for the trench-warfare which has neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives gaining or losing any territory, on one hand is the success of the Conservative Party's support on policy issues and leadership in English Canada, and on the other hand is its relatively weak overall support in French Canada. Without either of these changing in a significant way, the stalemate will likely continue.
Below are some policy and leadership issues which compare the perceived abilities of the parties and their leaders:
- Three in ten (29%) believe that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would do the best job at sharing the values of most Canadians if elected to run Canada's government. Fewer believe that Jack Layton and the NDP (22%), Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals (21%), Elizabeth May and the Green Party (9%) or Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc (4%) would be best at sharing Canadians' values. One in ten (9%) don't know, while 6% believe none of these parties would best do this.
- One in three (34%) believe Harper would do the best job of reducing the federal deficit, followed by those who believe Ignatieff (21%), Layton (16%), May (5%) or Duceppe (4%) would do the best job. One in ten (11%) don't know who would do the best job managing the deficit, while a similar proportion (10%) believes none of these leaders has the edge.
- Harper is also preferred by three in ten (29%) Canadians when it comes to spending taxpayers' money wisely, followed by those who believe that Layton (18%), Ignatieff (17%), May (9%) or Duceppe (5%) have the hammer in this regard. One in ten (9%) don't know who is best on this issue, while 14% believe none of these leaders is best equipped to spend taxpayers' money wisely.
- Canadians give the edge to Harper (26%) with regards to really understanding what the average taxpayer wants from government, while almost as many believe Layton (23%), or Ignatieff (18%) would do the best job understanding taxpayers. Fewer believe that Duceppe (7%) or May (6%) has the edge in this respect. One in ten (9%) don't know, while 10% say none of these leaders would do the best job at understanding taxpayers.
- Four in ten (41%) think that Harper would do the best job of making the right decisions about the types of equipment Canada's military will need in the future, while fewer believe Ignatieff (18%), Layton (12%), May (4%) or Duceppe (4%) would do the best job of making these types of decisions. One in ten (14%) don't know, while 6% believe none of these leaders is best able to make these decisions.
- Three in ten (27%) believe that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the man who Canadians think would do the best job of listening mostly to special interest groups and elites, while fewer believe that Layton (22%), Ignatieff (19%) May (9%) or Duceppe (5%) is the person who would most listen to special interests and elites. One in ten (13%) aren't sure, while 5% say none of these people is best described in this manner.
- Jack Layton is favoured by a plurality (27%) of Canadians when it comes to really shaking things up in Ottawa if elected to run Canada's government, while current Prime Minister Stephen Harper is in second-place at 21%, with Ignatieff (17%) in a close third. One in ten (12%) believe Elizabeth May would shake things up the best, while just 5% think Duceppe is the right person for this task. One in ten (10%) don't know who is best for this job, while 9% believe none of the leaders is best suited to shake things up.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from November 2-4, 2010. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
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