Volatile Times and the need for Resilience

We are living in volatile times – the current global scenario, muted consumer sentiments in India over the last few months, and the recent conflict in the subcontinent, have created uncertainty all around, and a challenging environment for businesses.

Globally the outlook is not confident- the IMF’s world trade uncertainty index is currently 7 times higher than it was in October 2024, much higher than during the pandemic. Recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the resulting global turmoil will likely have indirect effects on India, even though India may not be directly involved.  A recent Mint Quarterly survey (among investment professionals) to gauge the market’s pulse mentions “India is not immune to the secondary effects that are likely to rise from broader global disruptions,” and predicts “moderate/ moderately high levels of volatility in next few months”.  

This can also be viewed in the context of domestic consumer demand, which continues to be sluggish since the second half of 2024. Initial reports from the FMCG sector for the beginning of this year indicate overall sector performance is expected to remain muted, due to subdued demand, inflationary pressures, and weak volume growth. 

Ipsos’s Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for India has also shown volatility in the last few months – after a consistent decrease over H2 of 2024 (except the spike during the festive season), the scores have fluctuated over the first few months of 2025. 

Ipsos India has been tracking and presenting this outlook from the consumers viewpoint- a tempered outlook for 2025 with a growing disenchantment in the beginning of the year (Outlook Among Indians 2025: A Mixed Bag of Hope and Concerns | Ipsos), and also an increasing sense of despair and despondency among Urban Masses (Ipsos Global Trends - India Story 2024 | Embracing the Chaos of a Divided India | Ipsos).  

And the recent events (both globally and in the region) show that we live in a much more uncertain world than we did even three months ago – indicating that fluctuations in sentiments will continue in the near future as well. 

In this volatile scenario, companies must reassess their strategies to protect their bottom line, especially when topline growth is sluggish.  Businesses must be flexible and responsive to market shifts. This includes better operational efficiencies, refining products/services to meet evolving customer needs, diversifying income streams (new product lines, customer segments, sales channels), and targeted marketing efforts. The ability to accurately gauge and respond to the pulse of the consumers can help tide over these uncertain times.