Switzerland: The magic formula?

Despite parliament's shift to the right, Switzerland will remain politically very stable thanks to its “Magic Formula”. Surging health insurance costs, immigration control and the realities of climate change are the top concerns for Swiss citizens.

This year, Switzerland held its federal elections, a key milestone in the Swiss political landscape redefining the political colour of the Swiss parliament for the next four years. Two key takeaways from those elections:

• The parliament is shifting to “the Right”, while the Greens Party is facing a significant decline compared to their strong performance in 2019. 
• Despite those movements, Switzerland should remain politically very stable in the coming years.

The political stability of Switzerland is linked to its institutions as well as the “Swiss Government Magic Formula” that is likely to be respected. This formula describes the composition of the Federal Council of the Swiss government, in place since 1959, that divides the seven executive seats among the four coalition parties. 

Collegiality and consensus are other factors of stability. As stated by the Federal Constitution, "The Federal Council reaches its decisions as a collegial body", meaning that decisions are taken jointly and all Federal Council members must stand by the decisions in their external dealings, even if a decision may not accord with their personal views or the policy of their party.

As a result, unlike many neighbouring countries facing significant political changes and uncertainties, Switzerland should remain politically stable after those elections despite facing similar challenges such as on inflation, immigration or climate change. 

Indeed, ahead of the election, Ipsos, in partnership with a major Swiss Newspaper Le Temps, has been surveying the Swiss population on three major topics at the heart of the campaign: (1) Health insurance costs (2) Immigration and (3) Climate change. In line with the Federal election results, our polls showed that the right-wing UDC, the largest party in Switzerland and main winner of the elections, was the most trusted to solve all three topics with a clear focus on immigration and health insurance policies over climate change. A “pragmatic” end of the month vs an end of the world focus.

When digging into health insurance, the most important topic driving Swiss citizens’ voting behaviour, it is important to note that the Swiss rate the quality of their healthcare system higher than the global average. Across 31 countries, 48% people describe the quality of their healthcare system as good or very good, compared to more than two in three Swiss (68%), putting Switzerland in second position across the 31 surveyed countries. Despite this, high and continued increases to health insurance premium remains a major pain point in an already tense inflationary context (the poverty rate in Switzerland increased in 2021 to touch 8.7% of the population according to Federal statistics).

When the perception of an issue is high and persistent, attitudes can change and this is one of the key findings brought to light for the first time by the results of our Ipsos poll: a majority of Swiss people across linguistic regions (61%) are in favour of a centralised federal or cantonal health insurance system, a proposal which has previously been rejected twice in referendums (another major pillar of Swiss democracy). The next four years will definitively bring changes in Switzerland starting with the definition of a new viable health system. 

Hana Baronijan

Head of Public Affairs, Ipsos in Switzerland

Hubert Brossard

Senior Client Director, Ipsos in Switzerland