Mexico: The ideology of the broken system

In a trend that has been steadily growing since 2018, Latin America – Mexico included – has seen a shift in its political landscape; not necessarily a realignment of ideology, but a marked departure from traditional political parties. This trend has been observed in nations such as Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. But is Latin America shifting to the left or is there a deeper underlying phenomenon at work?

According to data from Ipsos, the shift is less about left-leaning ideologies and more about a growing frustration with the status quo. Latin American societies, wearied by corruption and failed political agendas, have increasingly turned their backs on traditional politics. Instead, they have thrown their support behind radicalized candidates who embody an anti-establishment ethos.

Ipsos' Broken System Index, a composite measure based on societies' agreement to five statements, has proven to be an accurate predictor of election outcomes in the region. The statements center on the belief that the economy favors the rich, traditional parties are out of touch, and the need for strong leadership to reclaim the country. Whenever two-thirds of the population agree with these sentiments, a regime change has followed, as recently seen with Argentina's Milei.

Mexico was the first to venture down this path and appears to have been the most successful in forming a political platform centered around anti-establishment. López Obrador won the 2018 election with 53% of the vote, distinguishing himself by founding a national movement rather than another political party. His platform, both pre- and post-election, was dedicated to fighting establishment corruption.

Despite a series of political crises, López Obrador's commitment to his anti-establishment rhetoric has allowed him to control the conversation and maintain the perception of continuous work against a broken system. This steadfastness has propelled his movement to win local and federal elections, now controlling most states in the country.

There is a strong possibility this sentiment will extend his rule for another term. The opposition has found a candidate with a similar anti-establishment stance. However, being backed by traditional political parties weakens the candidate's position as a new anti-establishment figure.

As this ideology of the broken system continues to resonate with the masses, it remains uncertain if the opposition's strategy will prove successful. It seems that the establishment's hold on power is dwindling, and a new wave of anti-establishment sentiment is dominating the political landscape of Latin America.

Jorge Vargas
Country Manager
Ipsos in Mexico