62% of Canadians Support the "Calgary Accord"

56% Believe Federal Government Should Continue to set National Standards for Health and Social Programs, in Spite of Cutbacks to Transfer Payments

58% Say Federal Government Should Scale Back in Areas of Provincial Jurisdiction

These are some of the findings of a Globe and Mail / National Angus Reid Group Poll, conducted among a representative cross-section of 1,516 Canadian adults between November 20th and 25th, 1997. A sample of this size has an associated margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, nineteen times out of twenty.

The "Calgary Accord"

Canadians -- both within and outside Quebec -- continue to voice solid support for "the Calgary Accord" struck by the nine non-Quebec premiers in September. This late-November poll, after briefly describing the accord to respondents, found supporters outnumber opponents by a margin of two to one nationally -- 62 percent vs. 30 percent. This margin of overall support is just as wide among Quebecers (59% support vs. 30% opposition) as it is across the rest of Canada. Support ranges from 66 percent in Atlantic Canada and Alberta to 58 percent in British Columbia. (Table 1) Immediately after the accord was achieved in September, a National Angus Reid Poll found 70 percent of Canadians seeing the initiative as "a positive step in the sight direction". Evidently, that overall positive assessment has held over these past two months.

Which Level of Government Can Best Protect Health and Social Programs?

Canadians are divided on which level of government they would most trust to protect health and social programs (45% say provincial, 42% federal), but they do feel that the federal government should continue to set national standards (56%). In areas of provincial jurisdiction, a majority (58%) say the federal government should scale back activities.

Protecting the Quality of Health Care and Social Programs

Canadians are divided on which level of government -- federal or provincial -- they would most trust to protect the quality of our health care system and social programs such as welfare, unemployment support and children's benefits. A very slim plurality (45%) would trust their provincial government, while about the same proportion (42%) would trust the federal government most. Nine percent say they would trust neither government. (Table 2)

Respondents living in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%) are significantly more likely to place a higher level of trust in their provincial government to protect these programs. Albertans (50%), British Columbians (49%) and residents of the Atlantic provinces are also slightly more likely than the national average to trust their provincial governments.

Ontarians, on the other hand, are much more likely than all other provinces to trust the federal government (52%) over the provincial government (40%) to protect health and social programs.

• Those who would vote Liberal (55%) in a federal election are much more likely to trust the federal government, whereas Bloq Quebecois (68%) and Reform (57%) supporters place a higher level of trust in the provincial government.
• Younger Canadians (53%), and those with a high school diploma (53%) are more likely to place a higher level of trust in the provincial government than any other socio-demographic groups. Trust in the federal government is highest among University graduates (50%) and more affluent respondents (48%).

Despite Cutbacks in Transfer Payments, Should the Federal Government Still Set Standards for Health and Social Programs?

A majority (56%) of Canadians believe that, even though the federal government has cut back its spending on health and social programs, it should still be able to set the standards for them so they are equal across the country. An opposing view is held be two in five (42%) who believe that, because the federal government is paying less of the cost, it should get out of the way and allow individual provinces to run them as they like. (Table 3)

Residents of Quebec (63%) are more than one and a half times more likely than all other provinces to believe that the federal government should step aside. In fact, excluding Quebec, the proportion of respondents who believe the federal government should still set nation-wide standards rises to more than three in five (63%).

• BQ supporters (80%) are substantially more in favour of individual provinces running their own health and social programs. Liberal (67%) and NDP (63%) supporters are most strongly in favour of national standards.
• University graduates (62%), more affluent respondents (61%) and older Canadians (60%) are the groups most likely to feel that the federal government should continue to set national standards.

The Balance Between the Federal and Provincial Governments

A majority (58%) agree that, given that the constitutional responsibility for health, education and welfare rests with the provincial governments, the federal government should scale back its activities in areas of provincial jurisdiction. More than one third (35%) somewhat agree with this statement, but fewer than one quarter (23%) strongly agree with it. Almost four in ten (38%) do not agree (23% somewhat disagree, 15% strongly disagree) that the federal government should be scaling back its activities. (Table 4)

There are slight variations across the country. Residents of British Columbia (66%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (65%) and Quebec (64%) are much more likely to believe that the federal government should scale back its activities in areas of provincial jurisdiction. In Ontario and the Atlantic, while still a majority agree the federal government should scale back, the proportion say as such drops to one in two (51%). Responses in Alberta are exactly on par with the national average (58% agree with scaling back, 38% disagree).

• Agreement that the federal government should scale back in areas of provincial jurisdiction is highest among Reform (71%) and BQ (68%) supporters.
• Demographically, most likely to agree that the federal government should scale back its activities in areas of provincial jurisdiction are men (62%), more affluent respondents (62%), and those aged 35 to 54 (60%).

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between November 20th and 25th, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 1,516 Canadian adults.

These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 and 1996 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,516, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, Executive Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright, Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

Christian Bourque, Directeur de recherche
Groupe Angus Reid
(514) 877-5550