Alberta Pre- Election Poll February 12, 2001

Eight in Ten (84%) Expect Klein to Win -- Half (55%) of Those Expect Klein Will Emerge From Election With a Smaller Majority

Calgary, Alberta -- The results of a recent Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll show that if an election were held tomorrow, 54 percent of Albertans would vote for the Progressive conservatives while 29 percent would vote for the Liberals. The NDP (9%) and the Social Credit Party (1%) trail far behind with single-digit support. Eight percent (8%) of Albertans are undecided at this time. Overall, two-thirds (66%) of Albertans say that Ralph Klein and the provincial Progressive Conservatives "deserve to be re-elected", and 84% expect that Klein will win the upcoming election. But of those who think Klein and the PCs will win, most (55%) expect that they will win a smaller majority government.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between February 9th and February 11th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 750 adult Albertans. The results are accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Alberta population been surveyed. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 1996 Census data.

PC's (54%) Hold Large Lead Over Liberals (29%) On Eve of Expected Election Call - NDP (9%) and Social Credit (1%) Trail Far Behind

As Alberta prepares for an expected election call, the provincial Progressive Conservatives (54%) enjoy a 25 point lead over their nearest rivals - the Liberals (29%). The NDP (9%) and the Social Credit Party (1%) are trailing even farther behind. Support for the PCs and the Liberals have remained relatively stable since January 2001 when support was 51 percent and 32 percent respectively.

Support for the PCs is more intense than for the Liberals. Eighty-one percent (81%) of PC supporters say they are either "very certain" (54%) or "fairly certain" (27%) that they will vote for the PCs. This compares with only 60 percent of Liberal supporters who are either "very certain" (39%) or "fairly certain" (20%) that they will vote for the Liberals. When it comes to which of the three factors is most important to Albertans in making up their minds, 50 percent say the party's stand on the issues is the most important. For a quarter (27%) of Albertans the ability of party leaders is the most important consideration, while one in five (20%) say the qualities of individual candidates in their constituency is the most important consideration.

• Support for the PCs is highest in Calgary (61%) and Central Alberta (58%) and lowest in Northern Alberta (47%) and Edmonton (49%).
• In contrast, Liberal support is highest in Edmonton (32%) and Northern Alberta (33%) and lowest in Calgary (24%) and Central Alberta (26%).
• Middle aged (62%) Albertans are more likely than older (52%) and younger (47%) Albertans to support the PCs.
• Men (61%) are much more likely than women (47%) to say they will vote for the PCs, while women (36%) are more likely than men (21%) to say they will vote for the Liberals.

Two-Thirds (66%) Say Klein and PC Government "Deserve to Be Re-Elected"

Two-thirds (66%) of Albertans say that Ralph Klein and the provincial Progressive Conservatives "deserve to be re-elected because, all things considered, they've been doing a good job of running Alberta". In contrast, 31 percent say that the Progressive Conservatives "do not deserve to be re-elected and it is now time to give one of the other parties a chance to run the province."

• Men (72%) are more likely than women (60%) to say the PCs deserve to be re-elected.
• Younger (69%) and middle aged (67%) Albertans are more likely than older (59%) to say the Klein government "deserves to be re-elected".

Eight in Ten (84%) Expect Klein to Win -- Half (55%) of Those Expect Klein Will Emerge From Election With a Smaller Majority

More than 8 in 10 (84%) Albertans think that Ralph Klein and the Progressive Conservatives will win the upcoming provincial election. However, when those Albertans who think that Klein and the Conservatives will win are asked to think about the number of seats the Progressive Conservative government currently has, most (55%) expect that the current government will win a smaller majority. One-third (36%) of those who expect a PC victory expect that the government will have a bigger majority while only 4 percent expect the Klein government will have a minority.

• Men (40%) are more likely than women (31%) to say that Klein and the PCs will have a bigger majority.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(403) 237-0066