Alberta Pre- Election Poll February 13, 2001

But Klein Begins Campaign Showing Strong Negative Momentum Rating (-16) -- Pannu (+2) and MacBeth (-1) Holding Steady

Calgary, Alberta -- The results of a recent Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll show that Ralph Klein (65%) has a commanding lead over Nancy MacBeth (21%) and Raj Pannu (6%) as the leader that Albertans think would make the best Premier. Klein (69%; 31% strongly) also posts the strongest leadership approval ratings, compared to MacBeth (47%; 8% strongly) and Pannu (38%; 4% strongly). The Premier's personal approval is up 6 points since January, while MacBeth (+5) and Pannu (+4) also show signs of increased approval.

Another important indicator of the current dynamics of the campaign is what we refer to as "momentum". In other words, has your opinion of a particular leader and party improved or worsened over the last few weeks. On this level, Klein and the Conservatives have the largest negative momentum rating (-16) while MacBeth and the Liberals (-1) and Pannu and the New Democrats (+2) hold steady. The percentage of respondents who say their opinion of Ralph Klein and the Conservatives has "worsened" (34%) is 16 points higher than the percentage who say their opinion of him has improved (18%). The percentage of respondents who say their opinion of Nancy MacBeth has "improved" (17%) is just 1 point lower than the percentage who say their opinion has "worsened" (18%). Meanwhile Raj Pannu and the New Democrats are the only party with a positive momentum rating, as the proportion of the public with an "improved" (11%) opinion is 2 points larger than the proportion with a "worsened" (9%) opinion.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between February 9th and February 11th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 750 adult Albertans. The results are accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Alberta population been surveyed. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 1996 Census data.

Ralph Klein (65%) Seen as Leader Who would Make Best Premier - Nancy MacBeth (21%) and Raj Pannu (6%) Trail Far Behind

Ralph Klein (65%) has a commanding 44-point lead over Nancy MacBeth (21%) and Raj Pannu (6%) as the leader that Albertans think would make the best Premier. Eight percent (8%) of Albertans say they "don't know" who would make the best Premier.

• Klein is viewed as the best Premier across all the regions, and is strongest in Calgary (72%) and Southern Alberta (65%), and least strong in Northern Alberta (58%) and Edmonton (61%).
• Men (74%) are much more likely than women (57%) to think that Ralph Klein would make the best Premier of Alberta.

Klein (69% - 31% Strongly) Posts Strongest Approval Ratings

Ralph Klein (69%) - up 6 points since January - also posts the strongest leadership approval ratings. Although approval of MacBeth (47%, up 5 points) and Pannu (38%, up 4 points) has also risen over the last month both trail the Premier by significant margins and fail to achieve majority approval. Moreover, Albertans are much more likely to strongly approve of Klein's (31%) performance than that of MacBeth (8%) and Pannu (4%).

• Klein's approval ratings are highest in Calgary (75%) and Southern Alberta (73%) and lowest in Edmonton (63%) and Northern Alberta (67%).
• Men (74%) are more likely than women (65%) approve of Klein's performance as Premier.

But Klein Begins Campaign Showing Strong Negative Momentum Rating (-16) -- Pannu (+2) and MacBeth (-1) Holding Steady

Looking at momentum (the difference between the percentage who say their opinion has "improved" minus the percentage who say their opinion has "worsened") for the parties and their leaders shows that Ralph Klein and the Conservatives have the largest negative momentum (18% "improved", 34% "worsened", net -16) while Nancy MacBeth and the Liberals (17% "improved", 18% "worsened", net -1) and Raj Pannu and the New Democrats (11% "improved", 9% "worsened", net +2) hold steady.

• Residents of Northern Alberta (38%) and Southern Alberta (37%) are the most likely to indicate that their opinion of Klein has "worsened", whereas those in Central Alberta (31%), Edmonton (33%), and Calgary (33%) are the least likely.
• Those aged 55 and older (41%) are more likely than those aged 18-34 (28%) and 35-54 (34%) to say their opinion of Ralph Klein has "worsened".

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(403) 237-0066