Are we prepared for population decline?

Media excitement over generational changes, is often misleading or even wrong. Evidence and data matter. In our latest generations report we have adopted an international lens, while also showing why we need to stay close to local, cultural and historical contexts. For example, the term 'Baby Boomers' may work in Canada and the United States, to denote people born in the decade after the Second World War. But if we go to Brazil, Nigeria or India, there was no population boom at this time. Where you were born and when you were born matters.

Experience tells us that coming up with genuinely useful - and valid - insights and analysis on these topics is not as easy as some journalists think. It is also rare we have the longitudinal data we would really need to describe generational change over time in a robust way. Looking forwards, we know of course that most predictions are wrong, not least in today’s 'polycrisis' environment. And this before we even consider the individual personal bias we all bring with us when we look at these topics. We are all, in different ways, products of our own cultures and contexts.

At the same time, one 'known known' is today’s dramatic demographic shifts. The prospect of global population decline from the middle of this century now looks irreversible. Declining populations are already the reality in over 30 countries, and fertility rates are falling even more quickly than predicted. Demography is already politics, and population change is a topic all of us in business need to prepare for.

All of this is a reminder that anyone looking at trends and generational change needs to ask some hard questions – as we do here. Have a look around – we look forward to discussing it all with you.