BC Election 2001 Party Preferences

(Vancouver, BC) - The latest Ipsos-Reid/CKNW/VTV survey shows Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals entering the final week of the BC election campaign with the support of nearly two-in-three decided voters (63%). The survey also shows the NDP and Green Party locked in an increasingly tight race for second place. The NDP have the support of 16% of decided voters, only 3 points ahead of the Green Party at 13% support. Unity BC and the Marijuana Party both stand at 3% support among BC voters. The level of undecided voters now stands at 12%.

Although there is little doubt the BC Liberals are on their way to a winning a massive majority of seats in this election, their support has dropped by 7 percentage points (70% to 63%) from an Ipsos-Reid survey conducted during the first week of the campaign. The smaller parties have reaped the benefit of this slight BC Liberal decline, with the Green Party up 3 points (10% to 13%), the Marijuana Party up 2 points (1% to 3%) and Unity BC up 1 point (2% to 3%). In yet another bad sign for Ujjal Dosanjh and the NDP, their support is unchanged (at 16%) from the early campaign survey.

There is no evidence that BC Liberal support will slip further over the final days of this campaign. In fact, the BC Liberals have by far the "hardest" support of any party. Fully seven-in-ten (72%) BC Liberal supporters say they are "very certain" about their choice. In contrast, fewer than one-half (47%) of NDP supporters and only about one-third (36%) of Green Party supporters say they are "very certain" about the party they will vote for on May 16th.

There is also no sign that BC Liberals are less likely turn out on election day because they might feel a BC Liberal victory is a foregone conclusion. Eighty-one percent of BC Liberal supporters say they "definitely" intend to cast a vote in this election. This puts BC Liberal supporters on par with NDP supporters (78% "definitely") and Green Party supporters (76% "definitely").

"Despite the certainty of a BC Liberal victory, two very exciting questions remain unanswered as we enter the final days of this campaign," says Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President of Ipsos-Reid. "The first is whether the BC Liberals can sweep all 79 seats, and the second is whether the Green Party can win any seats and perhaps challenge the NDP for official opposition. With the Greens making inroads into NDP support, it is very possible the Liberals will steal seats away from the NDP, and blank the opposition. As for the Adriane Carr's chances of becoming the Leader of the Opposition, much will depend on her election organization being able to solidify support, and get supporters to the polls on election day. Findings suggest there's a lot of work to do. We have to remember that the Greens are veritable neophytes in this regard when compared to a sophisticated party such as the NDP which has experience in winning elections on the ground, and getting people to the ballot box. At the end of the day, it may well be that NDP experience more than compensates for what is undeniably a groundswell of public opinion to make major changes to BC's political scene."

NEARLY TWO-IN-THREE (63%) DECIDED VOTERS SUPPORTING THE BC LIBERALS; GREEN PARTY AT 13% IS INCHING CLOSER TO THE NDP AT 16%

The BC Liberals have maintained their huge lead as the BC election campaign approaches its final week, with a landslide victory clearly in their sights. Sixty-three percent of decided BC voters say they will support Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals on election day. Next to the real possibility of a BC Liberal sweep of all 79 seats up for grabs, the most interesting story in this election continues to be the rising support for the Green Party. The Green Party now has the support of 13% of decided voters, only 3 percentage points behind the NDP at 16%. Unity BC and the Marijuana Party are well back, both at 3% support. These results exclude the 12% of British Columbia voters who express no preference for any of the provincial parties.

BC Liberal support has dropped 7 points from 70% in our early campaign survey. This is a return to levels of support seen in the months just before the election campaign. A March 2001 Ipsos-Reid survey also found the BC Liberals at 63% support. It would seem that early euphoria over a long anticipated election call might have temporarily inflated BC Liberal support.

The 7 point drop in BC Liberal support has done nothing to help the fortunes of Ujjal Dosanjh and the NDP. Support for the NDP remains at 16%, unchanged from the early campaign survey. Support has risen, however, for all of the smaller parties in this election campaign. The Green Party has moved from 10% to 13%, the Marijuana Party from 1% to 3%, and Unity BC from 2% to 3%.

Vote by Region

• The BC Liberals continue to hold a substantial lead in all regions of British Columbia, with support ranging from a high of 69% in suburban Vancouver to a low of 57% on Vancouver Island.
• In the race for second place, the Green Party narrowly leads the NDP in suburban Vancouver (13% Green vs.10% NDP) and on Vancouver Island (19% Green vs. 18% NDP). The NDP leads the Green Party in Vancouver Burnaby (23% NDP vs. 14% Green) and in the rest of BC (16% NDP vs. 9% Green). Both trail the Liberals by a substantial margin.

Vote by Union Status

• Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) decided voters from non-union households say they will support the BC Liberals on election day, compared to 14% for the NDP and 10% for the Green Party.
• The BC Liberals also lead by a comfortable margin in union households, although their support has fallen from the early campaign survey. Forty-nine percent of decided voters from union households say they will support the BC Liberals, down 12 points from 61% in the previous survey. The BC Liberal decline in union households has benefited the Green Party more than the NDP. Green Party support among union households is now at 20% (up 8% from earlier survey), while the NDP is at 21% (down 3% from earlier survey).

LIBERAL VOTERS MOST CERTAIN (72%) ABOUT THEIR CHOICE; NDP SUPPORT SOFTER (47% CERTAIN) AND GREEN SUPPORT THE SOFTEST (36% CERTAIN)

A key indicator of party strength is how committed party supporters are to voting for their party. On this measure, the BC Liberals have by far the "hardest" supporters of any provincial party. Seven-in-ten (72%) BC Liberals say they are "very certain" they will support a BC Liberal candidate in the upcoming election. BC Liberal support has firmed somewhat from the early election campaign survey when 65% of BC Liberal supporters said they were "very certain" about their choice.

Consistent with the early campaign survey, NDP support is "softer" than that for the BC Liberals. Fewer than one-half (47%) of NDP supporters claim to be "very certain" about their choice for election day. The firmness of NDP support is unchanged from early in the campaign.

The Green Party continues to have the "softest" support among the three main parties. Only about one-in-three (36%) Green Party voters say they are "very certain" of their vote choice. This is up 8 points from the early campaign survey, when 28% of Green Party supporters said they were "very certain" of their choice.

THREE-IN-FOUR ELIGIBLE VOTERS (76%) SAY THEY WILL DEFINITELY VOTE ON ELECTION DAY; SUPPORTERS OF ALL THREE MAIN PARTIES EQUALLY COMMITTED TO VOTING

Another key indicator of party strength is how committed party supporters are to actually going to the polls to vote on election day. On this measure, there is very little difference between the supporters of the three main parties. Eighty-one percent of BC Liberal supporters, 78% of NDP supporters and 76% of Green Party supporters say they will "definitely" go to the polls to vote on election day.

Overall, 76% of eligible BC voters say they "definitely" plan to vote on election day. This augers well for a turnout at least as high as that seen in the May 1996 provincial election. When Ipsos-Reid asked this same question just prior to election day 1996, 73% told us they would "definitely" vote, just 1 percentage point off the actual turnout of 72% seen in 1996.

GREEN PARTY IS SECOND CHOICE OF THREE-IN-TEN (30%) DECIDED VOTERS; NEARLY SIX-IN-TEN (56%) NDP VOTERS WOULD VOTE GREEN AS THEIR SECOND CHOICE

The Green Party would be the most popular second choice party of decided voters if unable to support their first choice in the election. Three-in-ten (30%) decided voters select the Green Party as their second choice. Unity BC is next highest at 15%, followed by the NDP at 11% and the BC Liberals at 9%. Twenty-nine percent of decided voters are uncommitted to any second choice party.

Green Party voters - the "softest" support of the three main parties - are split between the BC Liberals and the NDP as their second choice. Twenty-seven percent would vote BC Liberal as their second choice and 24% would vote NDP. A further 12% of Green Party voters say their second choice would be Unity BC. Thirty percent of Green Party voters are uncommitted to a second choice party.

Most NDP voters (56%) would select the Green Party as their second choice. Nineteen percent would vote BC Liberal and 5% for Unity BC. Fourteen percent of Green Party voters are uncommitted to a second choice party.

BC Liberal voters would choose to vote Green Party (30%) over Unity BC (20%) as a second choice. Ten percent say they would select the NDP, while 34% remain uncommitted to any particular second choice.

Established in 1979, Ipsos-Reid is Canada's leading market research and public opinion company. It is best known for the Angus Reid Express poll, the most widely quoted source of public opinion in the country. Founded by Dr. Angus Reid, Ipsos-Reid has conducted extensive market and social research in 80 countries and in 40 languages, and serves clients around the world through more than 300-professionals and 1,000 data collection staff in 11 offices. The company is a member of the Paris-based Ipsos Group, ranked among the top ten research companies in the world, with specialties in advertising, media, customer satisfaction, public opinion and market research.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)