BC Federal Election Poll: Party Standings

The Reform party and the governing Liberals share top spot in what is shaping up to be a close race for support among the BC electorate in this federal election. However, at the end of the first week of campaigning, the Liberal party machine seems to have stalled out of the gates in BC, slipping in public support from Angus Reid Group polls taken just a month ago. And, though close to a half the BC population still believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, their views of Jean Chrйtien and the party have soured since the dropping of the writ. This is good news for the opposition Reform party which has not only edged up a few points in public support, but, at this stage in the campaign, is the clear choice of most British Columbians when it comes to which party they feel would do a better job governing the country.

It should be kept in mind, however, that the Liberal party is still 7 points ahead of the popular support it received in the 1993 election while the Reform party is holding pretty much the same number of votes it obtained last time around when it won a majority of federal seats in the province.

While Liberals and Reformers duke it out for the front position, both the New Democrats and the Tories trail well back in popular support. However, early campaign exposure seems to have opened the eyes of many British Columbians who now hold more favourable views of both parties and their leaders than was the case a few weeks ago.

Highlights

• Currently, 37 percent of decided voters support the Reform party, while 35 percent are backing the Liberals.
• Further back, the New Democrats garner 16 percent of the decided vote in the province, and the Progressive Conservatives receive the support of 10 percent of the electorate. Two percent say they will vote for other parties.
• A total of 12 percent of British Columbians express no preference for any of the contenders.
• Reform party support is more solid than the other parties; 40 percent of supporters saying the are "very certain" they will vote Reform. By comparison, only 29 percent of New Democrats, 25 percent of Liberals, and 19 percent of Tory supporters express the same degree of commitment to voting for their party.
• Despite the tight party race, momentum seems to be moving away from the governing Liberals as the first week of campaigning ends; views of Jean Chrйtien and the Liberals have been generally more negative (29%) than positive (9%) over the past few weeks. Comparative numbers for other parties show either neutral views as in the case of Reform (14% positive, 16% negative) or generally more positive evaluations as with Jean Charest and the Conservatives (21%, 7%), and Alexa McDonough and the NDP (16%, 11%).
• The Liberal and Progressive Conservative parties would be the main beneficiaries in any vote switching scenarios. Twenty-six percent of voters would move to the Liberals, 21 percent to the Tories. Only 12 percent would go to Reform.
• The BC electorate is evenly split on the issue of whether or not the governing Liberals should receive a second mandate; 47 percent believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, but the same number believe another party would do a better job. Of those unhappy with the Liberals, most, 52 percent, think the Reform party would offer better government to Canadians.

The Party Standings

With the election only a week old, the governing Liberals appear to have stumbled out of the election gate, while the opposition Reformers have improved their standing in the BC population. As we head into the second week of campaigning, all predictions of a close two-way race in British Columbia are bearing fruit. Currently, the Liberal party receives the support of 35 percent of decided and leaning voters, 2 points behind the leading Reform party which obtains 37 percent of popular support. The NDP and Tories remain well back, garnering 16 and 10 percent, respectively of the decided vote in the province. In all, 12 percent of the BC electorate is undecided, unwilling to express a preference, will not vote, or is not happy with any of the current parties.

These findings show that federal Liberal support has slipped 6 percentage points since our pre-writ poll, from 41 to 35 percent. The main beneficiaries of the Liberal slide are the Reform party, up 4 points, from 33 to 37 percent, and the NDP, up 3 points to 16 percent. The Liberals are, nonetheless, still ahead of the 28 percent they received at the polls last election, while Reform has returned to its 1993 standing (36%).

Across the province, we find the main electoral battleground to be in the Lower Mainland. The Liberals look to be holding strong in Vancouver/Burnaby; at 44 percent support, they hold a comfortable lead over second place Reform (24%), while the NDP (16%) and the Tories (14%) are still further back.

The race is much tighter in the suburban communities outside Vancouver, where Reform holds a slight 3 point lead over the Liberals - 38 to 35 percent. Both the NDP (13%) and the Conservatives (11%) are not really in the race at this time.

On Vancouver Island, the Reform party holds a comfortable 9-point lead over the Liberals (39% vs. 30%), while the NDP (21%) is within striking distance in its traditional stronghold.

In the Rest of the province, Reform is the party to beat; with 47 percent of decided and leaning voters choosing Reform, it holds a commanding 17 point lead over its nearest competitor, the Liberals (30%). Both the NDP (14%) and the Tories (8%) stand well back in the race.

Among the different population segments, we notice a significant gender and generation gap between the leading contenders for votes in the province. While 41 percent of BC women currently choose the Liberals, only 29 percent of men say they will vote for the outgoing government. The picture is completely reversed for the Reform party - 45 percent of men are supporting it, while only 29 percent of women do so.

Both the Liberals and Reform appeal to very different age segments in the population; 43 percent of young British Columbians (18-34 years of age) are prepared to vote for the Liberals, compared to less than a third of middle-aged or older people in the province. For Reform, it is people in the 55+ age category who are more supportive of Reform than those younger in years (45% vs. 27%).

How "Firm" Is Party Support?

A key indicator of party strength in any election is how committed party supporters appear to be when they think about who they will vote for. Currently, Reform party supporters are much more committed to voting for the party in this federal election than is the case for those who currently support either the governing Liberals or the other parties. Fully 40 percent of those who say they will vote Reform are "very certain" of doing so. By comparison, only a quarter - 25 percent - of Liberal party supporters have this strong a commitment to voting Liberal. The same pattern holds true for those in the province who are currently backing the NDP (29% very certain) or the Progressive Conservatives (19%).

Analysis of the "softness" of party support shows the Liberal party with far fewer committed supporters than Reform in the early stages of the campaign; a full 42 percent of Liberals feel "not very" or "not at all" certain about their choice at this time, compared to 34 percent of Reformers. The NDP (49%) and Tories (64%) fare even worse.

Are The Parties Holding On To Their Core Supporters?

Further analysis of survey results reveal that the Reform party is doing a much better job of holding on to its 1993 supporters than the Liberals. Fully 79 percent of people who voted Reform in the last federal election now say they will vote for the party. By comparison, 62 percent of past Liberals intend to support the party this time around. Meanwhile, the federal NDP is holding on to more than half of its 1993 supporters (55%), while the Tories show a poor record in this regard. Small sample size for the latter two parties means results should be interpreted with some caution.

At present, Reform is picking up support from 14 percent of 1993 Liberals, 25 percent of Tories, and 10 percent of New Democrats. The Liberals are somewhat less successful in attracting 1993 Reformers (7%) to the Liberal fold, but do seem an attractive choice to those who voted Progressive Conservative (20%) or NDP (13%) in the last federal election.

Who is the Preferred Second Choice?

The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives stand to be the major beneficiaries from any vote switching which may occur during the election campaign. Currently, 26 percent of decided and leaning voters in BC would move to the Liberals if they were unable to support their first choice party. Another 21 percent say their allegiances would switch to the Tories. Only 12 percent would move to the opposition Reform party; more (15%) would move to the NDP. Twenty-one percent of voters would either not vote or remain undecided at the present time.

Further analysis of the findings indicate that, among decided and leaning voters, current Liberal party supporters would be most likely to move to the Progressive Conservatives (33%) rather than to Reform (24%) or the NDP (26%).

Current Reformers would move largely to the Liberals (35%) if for some reason they could not vote Liberal. Twenty percent would put their support behind the Tories. A full 28 percent would not vote or remain undecided.

Who Has The Momentum?

Our findings show that with the election starting gate wide open, Liberal leader, Jean Chrйtien and his party appear to be misfiring in the public's mind. With fully 29 percent of British Columbians saying their opinions of Chrйtien have "gotten worse" over the past few weeks, and only 9 percent with improved views, the Liberal party is beginning this election campaign quite out of favour with the BC population.

While views of Reform party leader, Preston Manning, are more positive than for Chrйtien, a greater number of British Columbians are still unhappy with Manning and his party than are happy. Sixteen percent of the people we spoke to say their opinions have "gotten worse" over the past few weeks, compared to 14 percent who hold more favourable views.

Jean Charest and the Tories are viewed most positively of all parties as the election campaign kicked off. Twenty-one percent of British Columbians say their views have improved, while only 7 percent consider Charest and the Tories more negatively.

For Alexa McDonough and the NDP, opinions are somewhat more muted; 16 percent like what they have seen over the past few months, and 11 percent have been disappointed.

Prime Minister Chrйtien suffers his most negative momentum gap among people in suburban Vancouver (-24), women (-23), and older British Columbians (-28%). Twenty-nine percent of Vancouver Island residents say their views of Chrйtien and the Liberals have gotten worse over the past few weeks, while only 9 percent say their opinions have improved.

For Preston Manning and Reform, momentum numbers are more positive in suburban Vancouver (+4) than elsewhere in the province, where more people hold negative views of his party's performance over the past few weeks. On Vancouver Island, the momentum gap is 7 points (19% gotten worse, 12% improved).

Jean Charest's momentum is strongest on Vancouver Island (+16) and Vancouver/Burnaby (+15) than elsewhere in the province.

Alexa McDonough and the NDP show the greatest momentum in Vancouver/Burnaby (+8% = 20% improved, 7% gotten worse).

Do The Liberals Deserve To Be Re-elected?

An important question for any election is to look at whether or not the public feels the outgoing government merits another run at holding the reins of power. When we asked this question about the federal Liberal party, we find British Columbians evenly divided on the issue. While 47 percent of people said the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, because they have been doing what's right for the country, an equal number (47%) took the opposite view, that the Liberals do not deserve re-election because one of the other major federal parties could do a better job of managing the country.

Of those who feel that some other party would perform better than the Liberals, a majority (52%) single out Reform as the party of choice to replace the Liberals. Far fewer would pick either the Tories (14%) or the NDP (12%).

This lack of consensus is present across the province, but to a lesser degree in Vancouver/Burnaby where a slim majority (51%) of people are prepared to give the Liberals a second mandate, compared to only 39 percent who feel otherwise. On Vancouver Island, the public remains evenly divided (49% no, 47% yes).

Among current party supporters, it is not too surprising to find the vast majority of Liberals (86%) backing their party for a second mandate nor is it particularly revealing that 79 percent of Reformers share the opposite view. However, with 50 percent of New Democrats and 31 percent of Tories willing to see the Liberals back in power, there is some indication of the breadth of its appeal among the BC electorate, and the job it has been doing in government since 1993.

The Angus Reid Group poll was conducted between April 28th and May 1st, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within ±4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult B.C. population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1991 Census data.

For further information, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257 3200