BC POLITICAL SCENE

With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

BC POLITICAL SCENE

This quarter's BC Angus Reid poll finds very little change in the provincial political scene. The Opposition Liberals continue to outdistance all other parties at the top of the polls, with a commanding 38-point lead over the governing New Democrats. And, in the aftermath of its by-election defeat, BC Reform has managed to hold on to its second place spot, albeit way behind the Liberals.

On the leadership front, British Columbians appear to have lost some patience with Premier Dan Miller, expressing a much higher degree of dissatisfaction with his performance this quarter than in the first few weeks after he took over from Glen Clark. BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, meanwhile, has maintained his high standing among the BC population. BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm continues to trail both other party leaders.

Currently, a solid majority of BC's decided voters - fully 55% - say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to outdistance both the NDP (17%) and the BC Reform party (18%) by a wide margin, a commanding 20-point gap over the combined support for these two parties. The PDA (2%) and BC Green (8%) parties account for 1-in-10 decided BC voters.

Overall, 18% of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties. Of these, only 3% say they are undecided.

Support for the Liberals has remained virtually the same over the summer months, dropping a statistically insignificant 2 percentage points since last September's Angus Reid poll. Meanwhile, NDP support has inched upwards since last quarter, from 15 to 17 percent, though it is the first positive movement for the party in almost 2 years. BC Reform's standing in public opinion has also moved up marginally, moving from 16% to 18% this quarter. The number of people unable or unwilling to commit themselves to one of the provincial parties has decreased 3 points since June of this year.

In the last quarter, we noticed some movement within the NDP core to return to the fold. This appears to have not continued over the fall months; currently only 38 percent of those who voted NDP in the 1996 provincial election say they would vote for the party in a provincial election, virtually the same number as our September poll (37%).

By comparison, 26 percent of 1996 New Democrats say they would vote for the provincial Liberal party; this is up a significant 8 points since September, indicating there may be some solidifying of the non-NDP vote in BC within the Liberal party. A full 11 percent are now with the Green party, while another 9 percent say they would vote BC Reform. And, 17 percent remain uncommitted at the present time.

Results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals continue to obtain strong support across all major regions in the province, but are particularly strong in the suburban Lower Mainland (60%). The party is weakest right now on Vancouver Island where it draws 44 percent of popular support, though it is still well ahead of the New Democrats on the Island (26%).
• To contrast, NDP support is quite low in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party enjoys much stronger support, however, on Vancouver Island (26%) and in Vancouver/Burnaby (21%) than elsewhere in the province where only one-in-ten people are in the NDP camp.
• As for BC Reform, its strongest support surfaces among British Columbians who live in the suburban areas outside Vancouver proper (26%), but also among people who live outside of the southwestern corner of the province (23%).

BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell, continues to lead all other party leaders in approval ratings. With 50% of British Columbians saying they approve of the job he is doing as provincial Opposition leader, Campbell is 10 points ahead of new NDP Premier, Dan Miller (40%), and 19 points ahead of acting BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (31%).

Campbell's approval rating remains virtually unchanged since September (49%) while more people now approve of Premier Miller than was the case three months ago (40% vs. 36%). Meanwhile, about the same number of British Columbians approve of Vander Zalm's performance as BC Reform leader as was the case in September (31% vs. 32%)

Slightly fewer British Columbians disapprove of Gordon Campbell's performance this quarter (43% vs. 45% in September); while only a marginal shift, this is the lowest level of disapproval for Campbell in over a year. By comparison, the BC public is much more disappointed with the job Premier Dan Miller is currently doing than was the case 3 months ago; 42 percent now disapprove of his performance compared to only 33 percent in September. There has been no change in the 55 percent of British Columbians who disapprove of Bill Vander Zalm in his role as leader of the BC Reform party.

Leader evaluations among regional and socio-demographic groupings reveal the following:

• BC Opposition leader, Gordon Campbell, enjoys solid approval ratings across all regions of the province, and from all population segments, with slightly higher numbers among Vancouver/Burnaby residents, men, younger British Columbians, university graduates, and those with higher household incomes.
• Premier Miller's performance is rated fairly evenly across all regional and socio-demographic groups, with very little variation.
• Bill Vander Zalm is most positively evaluated by people living in suburban Vancouver, men, and people with less formal education.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 893-1610