BC Political Scene February 2001

(Vancouver, BC) -- The most recent Ipsos-Reid poll on BC politics shows the provincial Liberals increasing their already substantial lead over all other parties as the province moves closer to a provincial election. With an election expected in the next few months, the polls show a majority of decided voters (55%) would vote for the BC Liberal party in a provincial election, this is up 4 points in the past month. Meanwhile, support for the governing NDP continues to be stalled; with 18 percent of decided voters, the party hasn't been able to budge public opinion beyond the low level of support it has obtained for much of the past two years. "British Columbians seem to be in neutral when it comes to the NDP; no matter what's happening on the provincial scene, the public continues to be unmoved by what the government does. With time running out on its mandate, one could see some dramatic actions from the NDP," comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice President in Ipsos-Reid's Vancouver office.

On the leadership front, the NDP and Liberal leaders are locked in a tight race as far as the BC public's approval of the job they're doing. Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell (50% approval), has closed the gap between himself and Premier Ujjal Dosanjh (54% approval), and his success in this regard shows no signs of abating. "It seems clear that, as the election draws near, and public scrutiny increases, Gordon Campbell is displaying some staying power with the BC population," observes Mr. Savas. "Premier Dosanjh, on the other hand, is performing well, but may not have the time he needs to establish the record he'd like to sell to the electorate."

BC Liberals (55%) Maintain Solid Lead Over NDP (18%), BC Reform (19%); Undecided Vote Up To 17%

Currently, 55 percent of BC's decided voters say they would vote Liberal in a provincial election. The Liberals continue to hold a commanding lead over both the NDP (18%) and the BC Reform party (19%). Support for the BC Green party (5%) and other parties (3%) accounts for just under 1-in-10 decided BC voters. Overall, 17 percent of people in BC currently express no preference for any of the provincial parties.

Support for the provincial Liberals has jumped a statistically significant 4 points in the past month, moving from 51 percent (in a December Ipsos-Reid poll) to its current 55 percent level. Meanwhile, support for both the NDP (17% to 18%) and BC Reform (18% to 19%) remain virtually unchanged over the same period. The number of people in the province who are supporting the BC Green party has dropped 4 points to 5 percent, a significant downward movement from the party's three-year high of 9 percent last month.

The number of British Columbians who are uncommitted in their voting preference has jumped 6 points to 17 percent in the past month (from 11% in December). This is the third consecutive change in direction in the past six months for the uncommitted, suggesting some degree of political party shopping is going on in advance of the provincial election.

Over the last quarter, we notice a significant increase in the number of former NDP voters prepared to vote again for the party. Currently, 46 percent of those who voted NDP in 1996 say they would vote for the party in a provincial election; this is up 8 points since December, when 38 percent said they were prepared to vote NDP.

Still, close to a third of 1996 New Democrats - fully 31 percent - say they would now vote for the provincial Liberal party. This is up a significant 6 points since December, when 25 percent had moved to the Liberals. Meanwhile, only 5 percent of 1996 NDP voters are now with the BC Green party, this is down 8 points from December; and 13 percent are in the BC Reform camp (+9 points). In all, 12 percent of people who voted NDP in the last provincial election are currently uncommitted.

To contrast, fully 87 percent of 1996 Liberals are currently in the Liberal camp as the 2001 election nears. Only 7 percent have moved to BC Reform; and 5 percent are undecided. For BC Reform, 44 percent of its 1996 supporters are still with the party, but 39 percent have moved to support the Liberals; and 14 percent are undecided at the present time.

Party preference results for regional and socio-demographic groupings are as follows:

• The BC Liberals obtain strong support across all major regions in the province, but the party is particularly strong in the Lower Mainland (58%). Liberal support is weakest on Vancouver Island (48%), but the party still holds a strong lead over the NDP there (23%).
• BC Liberal support is stronger than all other parties among all socio-demographic groups. The party enjoys particularly strong support, however, with men (59% vs. 51% women), older British Columbians (55% for 55+ vs. 45% for 18-34), university graduates (59% vs. 49% of those with high school education), upper income households (66% vs. 49% lower income), and non-union households (58% vs. 48% union).
• To contrast, NDP support is much lower in all regions relative to the Liberals. The party nonetheless enjoys stronger support in Vancouver/Burnaby (24%) and on Vancouver Island (23%). NDP support is fairly consistent across all population groups, with no statistically significant variations based on age, gender, or income.
• For BC Reform, strongest support surfaces among people living in the Interior (28%), though it still trails the Liberals (54%) by a substantial margin in the region.

Approval Ratings for Party Leaders Remain Unchanged; Dosanjh (54%) Holds Slight Lead Over Campbell (50%)

NDP Premier Ujjal Dosanjh holds a slight, but statistically significant, lead over Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell when it comes to how well the BC public thinks they're doing their jobs. Just over half the provincial population - 54 percent - say they approve of Dosanjh's performance as Premier, compared to 50 percent who give Campbell the favourable nod as Official Opposition Leader. Meanwhile, BC Reform leader, Bill Vander Zalm (29%), is well back of both Dosanjh and Campbell.

Evaluations of all party leaders have not changed over the past month. In December, 53 percent approved of Dosanjh, 51 percent felt positively towards Campbell, and 29 percent gave Vander Zalm positive ratings.

And, there is no significant movement in the number of people who disapprove of each of the three leaders. Currently, 41 percent disapprove of Dosanjh (40% in December), 40 percent disapprove of Campbell (40% in December), and 54 percent give a negative evaluation of Vander Zalm (55% in December).

This BC Ipsos-Reid poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between January 9th and 19th, 2001 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data.

With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +3.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610