BC Provincial Political Scene

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos-Reid poll finds Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals still well out in front of competing parties, despite a statistically significant five percentage point drop in their support over the last three months. The BC Liberals currently have the support of 43 percent (down 5 points from June) of decided voters, compared to 28 percent for the NDP (up 3 points) and 19 percent for the Green Party (up 1 point). This is the first time the Liberals have experienced a sizable decline in 2002. Liberal support had been holding at near 50 percent in each of the three previous quarters (June 48%, March 48%, December 50%).

The decline in Liberal support is concentrated on Vancouver Island, where the Liberals (25%) now trail the NDP (39%) and are in a dead heat with the Greens (26%). The Liberals have much higher levels of support in the Lower Mainland (49%) and in the North/Interior (44%).

Joy MacPhail leads Gordon Campbell in performance approval for the second consecutive quarter. MacPhail has the approval of five-in-ten (47%, unchanged from June) British Columbians, compared to four-in-ten (39%, down 2 points from June) who approve of Campbell's performance as Premier.

"These numbers might make the Liberals nervous, but they've still got a big lead in most areas of the province and an election is more than two years away" says Kyle Braid, Vice President in Ipsos-Reid's Vancouver office. Regarding the support for the Green Party, Mr. Braid adds, "Nineteen percent is probably an unrealistic level of support given that they've basically been invisible since the last election. It's likely that many of their apparent supporters have very little idea what the Greens stand for. Some may be Liberals who want to send a message to the government that they haven't been happy with all their actions so far. Others may be former NDPers who still haven't forgiven the party for the last decade."

These are the findings of a special feature BC Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between September 4th and 11th, 2002 among a representative cross-section of 800 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 800, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within 1773.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

BC Liberals (43%) Drop Five Points, But Remain Well Ahead of NDP (28%) and Greens (19%)

The BC Liberals currently have the support of 43 percent of decided and leaning voters, down from 48 percent in June. Liberal support had been holding at near 50 percent in each of the three previous quarters (June 48%, March 48%, December 50%).

Despite the drop, the Liberals still maintain a sizable lead over their nearest rivals, the NDP, who sit at 28 percent. The NDP is up three points from June and is now even with where they were in March. Both the Green Party (19%, up 1 point) and BC Unity (5%, unchanged) have held their support from our June survey.

The BC Liberals still have a commanding lead in most regions of the province. In the Lower Mainland the Liberals have the support of one-in-two (49%) decided voters, well ahead of both the NDP (26%) and the Greens (17%). The Liberals also have a large lead in the Interior/North, where they have 44 percent support, compared to 26 percent for the NDP and 19 percent for the Green Party.

The story is substantially different on Vancouver Island where BC Liberal support has fizzled to 25 percent (down 17 points from June). The BC Liberals now trail the NDP (39%) by 14 points on Vancouver Island and are in a virtual dead heat with the Green Party (26%).

The BC Liberals and NDP are now tied in the race for support with women (35% each). The BC Liberal gender gap stands at 16 points (51% men vs. 35% women), up from 10 points last quarter. The BC Liberals do much better with non-union households (50% vs. 27% non-union) and higher income households (51% vs. 27% lower income). The NDP does best with women (35% vs. 21% men) and union households (39% vs. 24% non-union). The Greens do best with younger residents (23% vs. 14% older) and lower income households (31% vs. 14% higher income).

MacPhail (47%) Continues to Lead Campbell (39%) in Job Approval

Four-in-ten (39%) BC residents say they approve of the job Gordon Campbell is doing as Premier of BC. This is down a statistically insignificant two points from June (41%). Conversely, six-in-ten (58%) British Columbians disapprove of the job Campbell is doing as Premier. In terms of intensity, "strong" disapproval outnumbers "strong" approval by nearly a four-to-one ratio (39% vs. 11%).

Approval of NDP leader Joy MacPhail is unchanged this quarter at 47 percent. One-in-three (35%) British Columbians disapproves of the performance of MacPhail as NDP leader. Although by a much smaller margin than for Campbell, "strong" disapproval of MacPhail is higher than "strong" approval (17% vs. 12%).

• Campbell's approval is highest with men (47% vs. 32% women), non-union households (43% vs. 31% union) and higher income residents (48% vs. 23% lower income). Campbell also does better in the Lower Mainland (44%) and North/Interior (39%) than he does on Vancouver Island (25%).
• MacPhail's approval is highest with women (54% vs. 40% men) and union households (56% vs. 43% non-union).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 257-3200