BC Provincial Political Scene

Vancouver, BC - A new Ipsos Reid poll in British Columbia shows the NDP making modest gains in voter support. The NDP currently have the support of 36% of the province's decided voters, a 4 point increase from April. The BC Liberals remain out front at 45% support, a decline of 4 points. The Green Party is favoured by 15% (unchanged) of decided voters. Current voter intentions are essentially a return to where the parties stood six months ago in December 2006 (BC Libs 45%, NDP 36%, Greens 16%).

One of the more contentious issues in the most recent Legislative Session was the proposal to give MLAs a new pension plan and increase their basic pay by 29%. While voters were not impressed with the actions of either of the two major parties on this issue, the reviews are much worse for the BC Liberals. Half (50%) of British Columbians say their impression of Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals worsened as a result of their actions on this issue (4% improved, 44% not changed). One-quarter (26%) say their impression of Carole James and the NDP worsened based on this issue (12% improved, 55% not changed).

Leader approval ratings generally mirror the trend in voting intentions. Gordon Campbell's approval rating as Premier is down 4 points to 49%, while his disapproval rating is up 7 points to 48%. Carole James' approval rating as NDP and Opposition leader is up 3 points to 54%, but her disapproval rating is also up 3 points to 34%.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between June 8 and June 13, 2007. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to the 2001 Census data.

NDP (36%, Up 4 Points) Make Gains, But Liberals (45%, Down 4 Points) Still Well Out Front

The BC Liberals are down slightly, but continue to lead in the battle for voter support in British Columbia. The BC Liberals currently have the support of 45% (down 4 points) of the province's decided voters, a 9 point lead over the NDP at 36% (up 4 points). The Green Party currently has 15% support, unchanged from April. These results exclude the 13% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

• The BC Liberals lead by 16 points in the Lower Mainland (50% Lib vs. 34% NDP) and by a statistically insignificant 2 points in the rest of BC (39% Lib vs. 37% NDP).
• The BC Liberals lead by 15 points among men (50% Lib vs. 35% NDP) and by 5 points among women (41% Lib vs. 36% NDP).
• The BC Liberals lead by a wide margin among higher income households (61% Lib vs. 26% NDP), but are tied among middle income households (39% Lib vs. 40% NDP) and trailing among lower income households (32% Lib vs. 42% NDP).

Decided Vote Tracking

Half (50%) Say MLA Pay Issue Left Them with Worsened Impression of Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals

The MLA Pay issue has done more damage to Gordon Campbell and the Liberals than to Carole James and the NDP. Half (50%) of British Columbians say their impression of Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals worsened as a result of their actions on this issue (4% improved, 44% not changed). One-quarter (26%) say their impression of Carole James and the NDP worsened based on this issue (12% improved, 55% not changed).

• Among BC Liberal voters, one-third (34%) say their impression of Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals worsened because of the MLA Pay issue (6% improved, 59% not changed). Interestingly, BC Liberal voters had virtually the same reaction to Carole James and the NDP on this issue (32% worsened impression, 6% improved, 59% not changed).
• Among NDP voters, two-thirds (64%) say their impression of Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals worsened because of this issue (3% improved, 31% not changed). The actions of Carole James and the NDP were basically a wash with NDP voters (22% improved, 19% worsened, 53% not changed).

Approval Rating Slightly Higher for NDP Leader James (54%, up 3 points) than for Premier Campbell (49%, down 4 points)

Carole James' approval rating as NDP and opposition leader is up 3 points to 54% (10% "strongly", 45% "moderately"). Her disapproval rating of 34% is also up 3 points from April (15% "strongly", 20% "moderately").

• James' approval rating is higher with women (58%) than with men (50%).

British Columbians are split in their assessments of Gordon Campbell's performance as Premier. Half (49%, down 4 points) of residents say they approve of Campbell's performance, including 12% "strongly" and 37% "moderately". Similarly, just less than half (48%, up 7 points) disapprove of his performance, including 29% "strongly" and 19% "moderately".

• Campbell's approval rating is higher in the Lower Mainland (52% vs. 45% rest of BC), with men (55% vs. 44% women) and higher income households (63% higher vs. 46% middle, 39% lower).

Leader Approval Tracking

For more Information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778-373-5130
[email protected]

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