BC Public Still Backs Liberals, But Many Questioning Their Choice

BC Liberals Maintain Support of Nearly 1-in-2 BC Voters (45%); NDP Vote Remains Static (27%), Greens Up 4 Points (20%)

The BC Liberals continue to enjoy solid support among the BC public, with 45% of decided voters saying they would vote for the party in a provincial election. This is down a statistically insignificant 3 points from a BC Ipsos-Reid poll taken in March of this year. At 45% support, the Liberals remain comfortably ahead of the NDP whose 27% support is virtually unchanged from March (28%). The BC Green party obtains 20% of popular support, up 4 points since March. BC Unity/Reform eke out 4% of the decided vote, unchanged from March.

Support for the BC Liberals is strongest in the Lower Mainland (46%) and the Interior/North (50%), and weakest on Vancouver Island (33%), where the party is in a virtual dead heat with the BC Green party (31%) and the NDP (27%).

And, while the Liberals enjoy more support than other parties across all demographic groups, there are significant differences depending upon the segment. For example, there are strong gender, generational, and socio-economic gaps in Liberal support. Men (52%) are much more likely than women (38%) to back the Liberals. The NDP has a similar gender gap, but with more women than men supporting the party (32% vs. 23%).

Similarly, a greater number of older British Columbians aged 55 or older would now vote Liberal compared to those 18 to 34 years of age (58% vs. 34%). Younger people, by comparison are much more likely to be with the Green party - 28% compared to just 10% of older British Columbians.

Finally, well off British Columbians ($60,000+ annual household income) are more likely to support the Liberals than those in the lower income range (50% vs. 33%). The less well off are more likely than others to back the BC Green party (29%).

Majority of BC Voters (65%) Finding It More Difficult to Stand Behind Liberals

Two-thirds of British Columbians (65%) are having trouble standing behind the BC Liberals, including 45% who express strong sentiments in this regard. By comparison, 34% of those surveyed disagreed with this assertion. Among those who supported the Liberals in the 2001 provincial election, 44% are questioning their support, including 26% whose doubts are quite strong.

Regionally, Vancouver Island residents share this sentiment more strongly than those living elsewhere in the province (75% vs. 62% Lower Mainland and 63% Interior/North).

And, generally, people in the following population segments are more likely to agree with this point of view: BC women (72% vs. 56% men), younger British Columbians (73% vs. 56% of 55+), people living in public sector union households (76% vs. 60% non-union), and lower income residents (73% vs. 56% upper income).

Few See NDP as Effective Opposition (7%); 1-in-3 Believe Media (34%) and the General Public (34%) More Effective

Despite the doubts they might express about the BC Liberals and the actions they've taken over the past year, most people in BC do not see the NDP as the most effective opposition in holding the government to account. Seven percent think the NDP has done the best job in this regard, but 34% identify the media and the general public as being more effective. One-in-ten (12%) chose organized labour groups, while another 12% said it was "someone else" or did not know.

This pattern of views is held consistently across all regions and population segments, with very little variation. One exception is that people living in union households are more likely to identify organized labour groups as doing the best job holding the government accountable for its actions (20% vs. 8% non-union).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 257-3200