Bob Rae Makes Positive Impression on Liberal Supporters,
But May Have Difficulty Wooing Other Voters

Toronto, ON - Bob Rae appears to have made a positive overall impression on Liberal supporters, but he may have a hard time wooing supporters of other parties back into the Liberal fold, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. The emerging question on the federal political scene, likely to be decided by Liberal Party brass in the next few weeks, is whether Bob Rae's tenure at the helm of the Liberal Party will be temporary as initially intended, or whether he will have the opportunity to run and seek the permanent leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Overall, one in three (34%) Canadians `agree' (4% strongly/30% somewhat) that `Bob Rae would make a good prime minister of Canada', and agreement with this statement rises to 59% among current Liberal voters and 42% among NDP voters.

Nationally and across voters of all political stripes, impressions of Bob Rae are more negative (27%) than positive (18%), but a majority (55%) have no impression of him either way. However, roughly three times as many current Liberal supporters have a positive (39%) impression than a negative one (14%), while nearly half (46%) have no impression of Bob Rae either way.

Among NDP supporters - thought to be the most likely growth opportunity for the Liberal Party - a similar proportion have a positive impression (22%) as a negative impression (20%), perhaps indicating that Bob Rae might have some difficulty wooing back ex-Liberal voters who are now NDP supporters if he were to remain head of the Liberal Party. However, six in ten (58%) current NDP supporters have no impression of him either way, suggesting some opportunity for growth and movement.

Impressions of Possible Liberal Leadership Candidates...

Ipsos Reid also tested Canadians' impressions of various individuals who might seek the leadership of the Liberal Party in the next leadership race, whenever that occurs. These are the national figures:

• Focusing on positive impressions, Justin Trudeau has made a positive impression on one in three (34%) Canadians, well above other rivals such as Bob Rae (18%), Marc Garneau (16%), David McGuinty (6%), Gerard Kennedy (6%) and Dominic Leblanc (4%).
• Examining negative impressions, Bob Rae (27%) tops the list, followed by David McGuinty (20%), brother of current Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty. Justin Trudeau has made a negative impression on 18% of Canadians, ahead of other possible candidates such as Dominic Leblanc (12%), Gerard Kennedy (11%) and Marc Garneau (11%).
• The leadership race will be an opportunity for candidates to make an impression on Liberal voters and Canadians, and for many it will be a first impression. Most Canadians have no impression either way of Dominic Leblanc (85%) or Gerard Kennedy (83%), while three quarters have no impression either way of David McGuinty (74%) and Marc Garneau (73%). Fewer Canadians don't have an opinion of Bob Rae (55%) and Justin Trudeau (47%).

Among current Liberal supporters, Justin Trudeau appears to have the edge:

• Justin Trudeau - 60% positive; 8% negative - net score: +52
• Marc Garneau - 35% positive; 7% negative - net score: +28
• Bob Rae - 39% positive; 14% negative - net score: +25
• Gerard Kennedy - 17% positive; 7% negative - net score: +10
• David McGuinty - 13% positive; 10% negative - net score: +3
• Dominic Leblanc - 8% positive; 7% negative - net score: +1

Among current NDP supporters, Trudeau also appears to have an edge in popularity:

• Justin Trudeau - 41% positive; 11% negative - net score: +30
• Marc Garneau - 16% positive; 9% negative - net score: +7
• Bob Rae - 22% positive; 20% negative - net score: +2
• Dominic Leblanc - 6% positive; 8% negative - net score: -2
• Gerard Kennedy - 6% positive; 9% negative - net score: -3
• David McGuinty - 7% positive; 20% negative - net score: -13

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between June 5 and 7, 2012, on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television. For this survey, a sample of 1,010 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Canada been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

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