British Columbians' Current View Of Their Economy

British Columbians Currently, and into Future, More Optimistic About Their Own Current Individual Financial Situation Compared to The BC Economy Overall

Vancouver, British Columbia -- Ipsos-Reid (formerly, the Angus Reid Group) was commissioned to survey British Columbians on their current views of business and economic issues as part of the backdrop to this month's Business Summit. The results indicate that two-thirds (65%) think the BC economy is on the wrong track. Six in ten British Columbians who disagree that BC is a good place to operate a business these days outnumber those who agree (38%) almost two to one. British Columbians currently, and into the future, are more optimistic about their own current individual financial situation compared to the BC economy overall.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between September 26, 2000 and October 1, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult British Columbian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Two-Thirds (65%) Think BC Economy On Wrong Track

Almost two-thirds (65%) of British Columbians polled said that the BC economy is on the wrong track; compared with 30 percent who said that it is on the right track.

• Regionally, the Lower Mainland (excluding Vancouver/Burnaby) is most likely (at 71%) to say wrong track.
• Middle-aged British Columbians (both 35-44 and 45-54 year olds) are also more likely (at 71%) to say wrong track. Fifty-nine percent of respondents aged 18-34 and 63 percent aged 55 and over reported wrong track.

Six in Ten Who Disagree That BC is A Good Place to Operate A Business These Days Outnumber Those Who Agree (38%) Almost 2 To 1

When British Columbians are asked their agreement with the statement that "BC is a good place to operate a business these days" only seven percent strongly agree; a further 32 percent somewhat agree. On the opposite end, one in three (34%) strongly disagree with the statement.

• British Columbians agreeing that "BC is a good place to operate a business these days" are fewest in the Lower Mainland (excluding Vancouver/Burnaby) at 30 percent. In each of the other regions of BC more than 40 percent agreed.
• Younger (18-34) British Columbians were most likely to agree (52% strongly/somewhat) that BC is a good place to operate a business these days; agreement among other age groups ranges from 31 percent to 33 percent.
• Agreement with BC as a good place to operate a business these days declines with income from 43 percent at the low end of the income groupings to 36 percent at the high end.
• Among British Columbians who agree that BC is a good place to operate a business these days, reasons for this position include:
• Many businesses are opening/staying open/succeeding (18%);
• Lots of opportunities/growth potential (16%), and
• Strong economic conditions (10%).
• And, among those disagreeing, the reasons include:
• Taxes are too high (33%);
• The government does not help/works against small business (11%), and
• Many businesses have failed (10%).

British Columbians Currently, and into Future, More Optimistic About Their Own Current Individual Financial Situation Compared to The BC Economy Overall

Seventy-three percent of British Columbians describe their own individual financial situation as good (65%) or very good (8%) compared to only 35 percent who say this about the BC economy (33% good and 1% very good). A third say both -- that their own financial situation will improve (33%) and that the BC economy will improve (34%) over the next year or so. While only 13 percent think their own individual financial situation will get worse almost one in four (24%) say that the BC economy will get worse.

• These views are held consistently across the province in terms of region.
• The higher British Columbian's income, the less likely they are to say the BC economy is good/very good currently (39% of less than $30,000 income earners and 32% among those earning $75,000 and over) and conversely the more likely they are to say that their own individual financial situation is good/very good (54% of less than $30,000 income earners and 85% among those earning $75,000 and over).
• Pessimism over their own financial situation increases with age. Forty-five percent of those aged 18-34 say they expect that their financial situation will improve over the next year or so compared to only 14 percent of those 55 and older. At the same time, 9percent of the 18-34 years olds think their financial situation will get worse and 19 percent of those 55 and older think this way.
• Data from BC Reid polling suggests that pessimism regarding the economy may have bottomed. Rating (very good/good) of the overall state of the BC economy averaged 70 percent from Spring 1996 through Fall 1997 but declined significantly thereafter. This same rating then averaged 24 percent from Summer 1998 through Spring 2000. At 34 percent, the current measurement continues a slow turnaround that began in the Summer of 1999. Incremental positive changes are also evident in expectations of the BC economy over the next year (`get worse' has dropped from 26 percent in an April sounding to 24 percent and this is down from the high 30 percentages last year).

Almost A Quarter of British Columbians (23%) Are Concerned About Their Employment Situation

While a majority (53%) say that they are "not at all concerned" about losing their job over the next six months and a further 18 percent indicate that they are "not very concerned", almost one in four of British Columbians are concerned (10% very concerned and 13% somewhat).

• Job concerns are highest with younger British Columbians (28% aged 18-34 and 33% aged 35-44 are very/somewhat concerned while only 12% of those aged 55 and over feel this way).
• Concern over job loss decreases with both education (from 28% very/somewhat concerned with less than or equal to high school education to 15% among university graduates) and income (from 32% in the lowest income bracket to 17% in the highest).

British Columbians Who Plan To Spend Less (23%) Outweigh Those Planning To Spend More (18%)

A majority (59%) of British Columbians report that their spending, personally as a consumer, will be about the same in the next 12 months as it was over the past year. However, 23 percent report that they will spend less over the next year while 18 percent said they expect to spend more.

A Majority of British Columbians (58%) Disagree That Business Taxes in BC are About The Same as in Other Canadian Provinces; Virtually Everyone Disagreeing Believes That Taxes are Higher in BC

When asked about business taxes in BC, 30 percent of British Columbians `strongly disagree' that they are the same level as in other provinces. Roughly an equivalent amount (28%) `somewhat disagree'. One in four (24%) agree that they are the same level while only 4 percent `strongly agree' that this is the case.

• Among those disagreeing (58%) that business taxes in BC are the same as in other provinces, 93 percent say that they are higher and only 7 percent say lower.

Alberta (44%) Seen as BC's Biggest Economic Competitor

Almost one in two (44%) British Columbians cite Alberta as their biggest economic competitor. Combined with 14 percent who say Ontario and another 2 percent citing `other Canada' establishes the east-west link as the primary focal point (60%) for economic competition. The most direct north-south link, Washington State, garnered only 4 percent of the responses; `Other U.S.' did capture 22 percent, but combined with the aforementioned four, this totals less than half the responses of the Canadian linkages.

Health Care Is the Number One Issue With British Columbians (37%)

On an open-ended basis, British Columbians' first mention as the one issue that should receive the greatest attention from BC's leaders is health care (37%). No other single mention received more than 10 percent; though general economic issues did garner a response from more than one in four respondents (Taxes/Tax reform/GST - 9%, Economy - 8%, Deficit/Government spending - 5%, Unemployment/Jobs -5%).

• Health care (at 29%) was less of an issue with respondents in the Lower Mainland (excluding Vancouver/Burnaby). Conversely, economic issues were more important in the Lower Mainland (Taxes - 12%, Economy - 10%).
• Health care was a more important issue for older British Columbian's (49% among respondents aged 55 and over) and less of an issue for respondents with less education (30% among respondents with high school or less).
• Among British Columbians who indicated health care as the issue that should receive the greatest attention, 46 percent say that the situation regarding health care will get worse over the next five years compared to 37 percent who think it will get better.
• Data from recent BC Reid polls conducted by Ipsos-Reid Corporation (formerly, the Angus Reid Group) suggests that, of late, health care has increased in importance as an issue; generally less than 20 percent pre-summer 1999 to current levels in the high 30 percentages. This is true also of Taxes/Tax reform/GST (a 5%-6% range pre-summer 1999 to current levels around 9%-11%) though the opposite seems apparent with respect to the economy (15%-25% pre-summer 1999 to a current range of 8%-15%) as issues.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President/COO
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900