Canada and the Iraq War: Two Solitudes Emerge

Toronto, ONTARIO (Sunday, April 6th, 2003) - Going into the third week of the military action in Iraq and as Coalition forces are on the outskirts of Baghdad, Canadians are split evenly between those who support (48%) and those who oppose (48%) the U.S. led military action according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released tonight.

However, a division is clearly developing between the two solitudes. A slight majority (54%) of Canadians outside of Quebec now express approval of the war, compared to just three in ten (29%) in Quebec. In context, just two weeks ago, 52% of Canadians in total opposed the military action, with English Canada split evenly between those who supported (49%) and those who opposed (48%) the war.

This division between Quebec and the rest of Canada is also clear when asked if Canada should, now that the military action has begun, offer help to the U.S. led coalition. While just half (51%) of Canadians in total support such a move, the sentiment is much stronger in English Canada (58%) than in Quebec (28%).

And finally, Prime Minister Chretien's approval rating on how he has handled the Iraq situation remains steady at 55%, down one point from last week. However, once again, there is a major difference between the views in Quebec (75%) and in the rest of Canada (48%). In fact, half (50%) of Canadians outside of Quebec now disapprove of the Prime Minister's handling of the Iraq file. This compares to last week when 50% of English Canada expressed approval of the Prime Minister regarding the Iraq situation.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between April 1st and April 3rd, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Canadians are evenly split between those who support (48%) and those who oppose (48%) the U.S. led military action. A slight majority (54%) of Canadians outside of Quebec now express approval of the war, compared to just three in ten (29%) in Quebec.

• Regionally, Albertans (62%) are the most likely to express support, followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%), Ontario (54%), Atlantic Canada (53%), British Columbia (51%) and as mentioned above Quebec (29%).
• Nationally, middle aged (53%) are more likely to support the war than are younger (43%) Canadians.
• Men (56%) are also more likely to express support for the war than are women (41%).
• Canadians from upper income households (53%) are more likely than Canadians in lower income households (41%) to express support for the U.S.-led war.

This division between Quebec and the rest of Canada is also clear when asked if Canada should, now that the military action has begun, offer help to the U.S. led coalition. While just half (51%) of Canadians in total support such a move, the sentiment is much stronger in English Canada (58%) than in Quebec (28%). Forty-six percent of Canadians express opposition to such a move.

• Regionally, Albertans (68%) are the most likely to feel that Canada should now offer help to the coalition now that military action has begun. This compares to the views of those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (62%), Atlantic Canada (61%), Ontario (58%) and British Columbia (51%) where just half of residents express support for such an action. As mentioned above, just 28% of Quebecers express support for this type of action.
• Middle aged (57%) Canadians are the most likely to support Canada now offering help to the Coalition, while younger (43%) Canadians the least likely to support this action.
• Men (55%) are more likely than women (48%) to say they support Canada offering help to the U.S. led coalition, now that the military action has begun.
• Canadians from upper income households (56%) are more likely than their counterparts in middle (50%) or lower (44%) income households.

Prime Minister Chretien's approval rating on his handling of the Iraq situation remains steady at 55%, down one point from last week. However, once again there are major difference between the views in Quebec (75%) and in the rest of Canada (48%). In fact, half (50%) of Canadians outside of Quebec now disapprove of the Prime Minister's handling of the Iraq file.

• Regionally, views on this topic are somewhat split, with a majority of Quebecers (75%) as well as British Columbians (54%) and residents of Atlantic Canada (54%) expressing approval of the way the Prime Minister has handled the Iraq situation, while a majorities of Albertans (60%), residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (53%) and Ontarians (51%) disapproving of the Prime Ministers actions on this file.
• Approval is higher among older (60%) and younger (58%) Canadians than among their middle aged (50%) counterparts.
• Approval of the Prime Minister's handling of the Iraq situation is higher among Canadians in lower (60%) and middle (57%) income households than among Canadians in upper income households (50%).

To view the release and the detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900