The Canadian Boycott Factor in the U.S.: Mainly Out of Sight, Out of mind

Toronto, ONTARIO (Sunday, April 13th, 2003) -- As the military action in Iraq tempers itself with the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime, a poll of Americans shows that almost half of them (47%) believe that Canada supported their government's decision to take military action against the regime according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released this evening. Further, a quarter (26%) of Americans indicate that they have been avoiding Canadian goods and services for the last six months - but 17% indicate that they have been buying more Canadian goods and services - with a net boycott impact factor by 9% of the U.S. public.

However, should Americans learn that Canada did not support the U.S. military action in Iraq, the potential boycott factor rises to 40% with the pro-Canada buying slipping to only 8% -- a net boycott impact factor by 32% of the U.S. public.

How Many Are Less Likely Versus More Likely to be Avoiding Products from Canada, France, Germany and Great Britain?

Respondents were asked in an uncontaminated way (i.e. there was no preamble with respect to the Iraq military action or any country position therein) whether they were currently more likely, less likely or no more or less likely to buy products or services than they were six months ago from France, Germany, Canada or Great Britain. France emerged as the number one country where a full majority (53%) of Americans are less likely to be purchasing their products or services (primarily avoided by Republicans (68%), those earning more than $50K (58%), retired (63%), men (57%), and older (66%)); followed by Germany (42%) (mainly avoided by Republicans (54%), $50K+ (45%), retired (50%), and aged 50+ (52%). Canada's goods and services are being avoided by 26% of Americans (Republicans (27%), under $50K (29%), high school educated (35%), not employed (31%), aged 65+(30%) and in the southern part of the U.S (30%). Lastly, Great Britain is only being avoided by 15% of the American population.

On the other hand, four in ten Americans (38%) say that in the last six months, they are more likely to be purchasing good and services from Great Britain, followed by Canada (17%), Germany (9%) and France (8%).

In terms of the "net" impact (when you subtract the "more likely to buy" from the "less likely to buy"), Great Britain emerges with a positive effect: net +23 percentage points are more likely to be buying their goods and services versus France at -45 percentage points, Germany at -33 percentage points and Canada at -9 percentage points.

So, When it Comes to Various Countries, Which Ones do the American Public Believe are Offering Support or Opposition to the U.S. Military Actions in Iraq Today?

Americans are very clear that Great Britain (86%) and Australia (72%) support the U.S. military action in Iraq. As well, France is viewed by 83% to oppose the U.S. military action in Iraq. Even when asked about Spain, almost two thirds (61%) indicate that Spain is supportive of U.S. military action vs. 23% who say that Spain is opposed.

However, when asked about Canada, there is a lack of clarity as to what Canada's position is in the conflict. Almost half (47%) of Americans indicate that they believe Canada is supportive of the U.S. military action in Iraq (women (48%), younger (52%), western U.S. (52%), suburban (49%), Republicans (45%), Democrats (47%) under $25K (53%), un-employed (58%)) compared to 44% who believe that Canada is opposed to the U.S. military action in Iraq (Republicans (47%), Democrats (45%), $50K+ (50%), most educated (50%), working (48%), men (49%), middle-aged (48%), and north east/mid west (47%)).

Essentially, more Americans believe that Canada is supportive of their military action in Iraq than believe Canada is opposed. But they do have a better sense, although somewhat fuzzy, that Canada is not part of the "coalition of the willing" as referred to by U.S. President Bush. Almost half (48%) of Americans believe Canada is not part of the coalition - however, a third (33%) believe that Canada is a member of the "coalition of the willing", while one in five (19%) don't know.

But the Boycott Factor Could Be Higher for Canada if They Knew More...

Respondents were then asked, on a general basis, as to whether or not (on a scale of 0-10) they personally would definitely boycott a country that did not support U.S. military action in Iraq or not boycott. In total, 36% of Americans indicated that they would have the propensity to boycott such a country, with 28% indicating that they definitely would not. One third (36%) of the American public stayed in the middle ground of this choice.

But when Americans were informed that, in fact, the Government of Canada does not support the war in Iraq and has not joined the "collation of the willing", four in ten (40%) Americans (up from 26% who at the outset, in an uncontaminated way, were already avoiding Canadian products and services) would avoid Canadian products and services. This represents an increase of 14 points when informed of the Canadian Government's position. Further, whereas in the uncontaminated question at the outset, 17% of Americans indicated that they have been buying more Canadian goods and services, when informed of this Government position, that figure drops to 8% "more likely to buy". The net effect is that when Americans are fully informed of the Canadian Government's position, the potential avoidance of Canadian goods and services, on a net basis, is 32% of the American public.

Those most likely to be less likely to purchase Canadian goods and services are older (45%), mid-west (44%), southern (43%), rural (42%), Republicans (46%), middle income (43%), less-educated (46%), and retired (45%).

So How About the Border?

When asked whether Canada is doing enough in securing the U.S./Canadian border to make sure no terrorists enter the U.S. from Canada, almost half (47%) indicate that Canada is not doing enough, as opposed to 37% who believe Canada is doing enough and 16% who say they don't know.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mai poll conducted between April 2nd and April 4th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 American adults. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult American population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual American population according to the U.S. Census data.

To view the release and the detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900