The Canadian Election after Week #2:
Harper's Conservatives (41%) Hold Lead over Ignatieff's Liberals (26%), Layton's NDP (19%) and May's Green
Party (4%) with Duceppe's Bloc Leading in Quebec at 37% (9%)
Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc have 37% of the vote in Quebec, with the Conservatives (22%) and Liberals (21%) in a virtual tie with the NDP close behind (18%) and the Green Party (2%) well back of all others. One in ten (9%) Canadians is undecided.
The results represent only a marginal change from the poll released by Ipsos Reid at the outset of the campaign.
What continues to drive the high-flying Tories in the overall national support are their numbers in Ontario: 46% of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives--15 points ahead of the Liberals at 31%, followed by 17% for the NDP and 6% for the Green Party.
But the national vote numbers could yield a `ballot box bonus' for the Conservatives and deliver them their coveted majority if vote certainty turnout holds: currently, 56% of Canadians say that they are `absolutely certain' to go out and vote on Election Day and if this represented the actual vote turnout the adjusted polling numbers suggest Conservative support would rise to 44%(+3), support for the Liberals would be 26%, the NDP vote would yield 18% and the Green Party would receive 4%. The Bloc would receive 8% nationally.
Mirroring this is the fact that four in ten (44%) Canadians believe the `Conservative Party under Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election' while 46% more closely agrees that `the Conservative Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another party to be given a chance to govern the country'. One in ten (10%) Canadians don't know which of these options is closest to their point of view.
But while the numbers have remained relatively consistent on the topline vote intentions, the real shakeup may actually be in the fight for second choice ballots:
- When asked their second choice the NDP leads with 31% of decided voters compared to 21% who would pick the Liberals, 12% who would choose the Conservatives and 12% who would pick the Green Party.
- But it's the Liberals who may have the most to lose by NDP vote preying: 50% of Liberal supporters say their second preference is the NDP whereas just one in three (35%) NDP supporters say their second choice is the Liberal Party.
Impressions of Party Leaders...
Canadians were asked whether their impressions of the party leaders have changed in the past week or so:
- Nearly one quarter (23%) of Canadians say that their impression of Stephen Harper has worsened in the past week or so, compared to one in ten (11%) who say their impressions of him have improved, yielding a net drop of 12 points. Six in ten (62%) report no change in their impressions, and 3% don't know.
- Two in ten (21%) say their impression of Michael Ignatieff has worsened, roughly equalling the proportion of Canadians who say their impressions have improved (20%), representing a net drop of 1 point. A majority's (54%) impressions remain unchanged, and 5% don't know.
- Three in ten (26%) say their impression of Jack Layton has improved, compared to just 7% who say their impression has worsened, representing a net increase of 19 points. Most (62%) say their views are unchanged, while 5% don't know.
- Within Quebec, impressions of Gilles Duceppe have increased in the eyes of 19% of Quebecers, while just 9% have a worsened impression of him, representing a net increase of 10 points. Most (68%) Quebecer's impressions remain unchanged, while 4% don't know.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from April 5-7, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
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