Canadians Assess the Liberal Party's Chances of Victory

Toronto, ON - The Liberal policy convention in Montreal is underway, and in this second release of a three-part series, Canadians have assessed the Liberal Party's chances of victory in the next federal election.

The Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for CTV News, has revealed that while most want change, Canadians are split on whether they think the Liberals or Tories will form the next government. Further, half (51%) of Canadians now think the Liberals ready to take over, up 7 points in two months.

Most (68%) Think It's Time for Another Party to Take over; One in Three (32%) Think Harper Government Deserves Re-election...

With the Harper government having been in power for 8 years and the next election still being a year or so away, the poll reveals that most (68%) Canadians say that `it is time for another federal party to take over and run the country', although this is down two points since October and relatively stable over the last year.

This compares to 32% (up 2 points) who believe that the Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election, a figure which often closely mirrors the degree of support for the incumbent in a re-election bid. This, along with recent Ipsos Reid polls that show an 8-point Liberal lead nationally, suggests that the Liberals have a good shot of winning the next election if they can get out their vote on Election Day.

Residents of Alberta (40%), British Columbia (37%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%) are most likely to believe the government deserves re-election, while those in Ontario (35%), Atlantic Canada (28%) and Quebec (18%) are less likely to think so. Conversely, Quebecers (82%) and Atlantic Canadians (72%) most want change, followed by those in Ontario (65%), BC (63%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (63%) and Alberta (60%).

Canadians Split on Whether Liberals (45%) or Tories (43%) Will Win Next Election, Few (13%) Think NDP Will Win...

Regardless of whom they would vote for in the next Federal Election, 45% of Canadians think that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals will win, compared to 43% who think that Prime Minister Harper and the Conservatives will win.

Interestingly, just 13% think the Thomas Mulcair and the NDP will win, despite currently forming the Official Opposition in Parliament. Even in Quebec, the NDP's current stronghold, more believe the Liberals (50%) or the Tories (28%) will win than the NDP (22%).

The race in Ontario, which Ipsos polls have shown to be quite tight, is also proving a tough one to call, with Ontarians split between thinking that the Liberals (47%) or Conservatives (44%) will win, while only 10% think the NDP will win the next election.

Half (51%) of Canadians Agree the Liberal Party is Ready to be Canada's Next Government...

Just as Canadians are warming to Justin Trudeau, so too are they warming to the idea of a Liberal government. Fully one half (51%) of Canadians now `agree' (18% strongly/32% somewhat) that `the Liberal Party is ready to be Canada's next government', up 7 points in two months. Conversely, half (49%) `disagree' (23% strongly/26% somewhat) that they are ready to govern, down 7 points.

The biggest gains have been made in the west: Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+21), Alberta (+13), British Columbia (+7) and Ontario (+6), compared to Quebec (+2) and Atlantic Canada (+2). Currently, Atlantic Canadians (64%), and Ontarians (52%) are most likely to believe the Liberals are ready, compared to fewer in British Columbia (49%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%), Quebec (48%) and Alberta (45%).

Four in Ten (44%) Approve of Harper Government's Performance...

Four in ten (44%) Canadians `approve' (8% strongly/36% somewhat) of the performance of the Harper Government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, up 3 points from the half-way mark of the government's mandate. Conversely, a majority (56%) `disapproves' (27% strongly/29% somewhat) of its performance, down 3 points.

The government's approval rating has been steadily in the low 40s for the better part of a year, but is not translating into votes for the Tories as the sentiment for change in Ottawa appears to be too strong.

Approval of the government is highest in Alberta (57%), British Columbia (48%), Ontario (47%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (43%), but much lower in Atlantic Canada (34%) and Quebec (32%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between February 14th to 19th, 2014 on behalf of CTV News. For this survey, a sample of 1,036 Canadians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world's third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos' offerings and capabilities.