Canadians Moderately Hopeful About Future With Martin Government

Toronto, Ontario - It would appear that Canadians are hopeful about Canada's future with a Paul Martin government, as six in ten agree (61%) with the statement that he gives them "hope about the future."In contrast, one third (34%) of Canadians do not agree the Mr. Martin provides them with hope about the future.

Prime Minister Martin has been somewhat successful in gaining regional appeal; as a slim majority of six in ten (56%) agree that Mr. Martin understands the needs of people from their part of the country. But a third (36%) do not agree with this statement.

While there are some positive feelings towards Martin, in the end more than half (56%) agree that Paul Martin does not represent much of a change from past Liberal governments. In comparison, one third (36%) feel that he does represent a change from previous Liberal administrations.

From what they have seen so far, half (47%) agree with the statement that Paul Martin is doing a better job than his predecessor Jean Chretien, while a third (34%) disagree and one fifth (19%) answer that they don't know. Further, half (55%) believe that Martin will run a more ethical government than Chretien, juxtaposed against a third (36%) who do not believe he will run a more ethical government.

Six in ten (57%) agree that Mr. Martin has successfully communicated his vision for Canada to the public. One third of Canadians (35%) believe that Prime Minister Martin has not done a good job in outlining what his plans are for the country.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between January 13 and January 15th 2004. The telephone survey is based on a randomly selected sample of 1055 adult Canadians during each time frame. With a sample of this size, the results for each question are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Canadians Moderately Hopeful About Future With Martin Government Martin Viewed In Slightly Optimistic Light

Paul Martin has been mildly successful in instilling a sense of optimism among the public, as six in ten (61%) agree with the statement that "he gives me hope about the future" (47% somewhat agree, 14% strongly agree). In contrast, three in ten (34%) Canadians disagree with this statement (18% somewhat disagree, 15% strongly disagree).

• It appears as though there is not much variation across the regions of Canada when considering whether Martin inspires hope for the future, as levels of opinion are relatively consistent.

• Martin's ability to instil hope about the future is most effective among those who are higher earners (57%

Martin Has Some Regional Appeal

Over half (56%) agree that Paul Martin understands the needs of people from their part of the country (41% somewhat agree, 15% strongly agree). A substantial minority of four in ten (36%) disagree with this notion.

• Ontarians are the most likely to agree with this statement (66%), followed by Quebecers (55%), residents of Manitoba/Saskatchewan (53%), Albertans (52%), Atlantic Canadians (46%) and residents of British Columbia (39%).

• Residents of urban areas are significantly more likely to believe that Mr. Martin understands their needs than are residents of rural areas (59% urban vs. 44% rural).

Martin Does Not Break the Liberal Mould Martin Does Not Really Represent A Change From Past Liberal Governments

Over half (56%) feel that Paul Martin doesn't represent much of a change from past Liberal governments (36% somewhat agree, 20% strongly agree). Matched up against the third (36%) who do believe that Paul Martin represents a change from previous Liberal administrations (26% somewhat disagree, 10% strongly disagree).

• A majority of those living in Quebec (62%), Alberta (61%), Atlantic Canada (59%), Ontario (55%), and British Columbia (52%), believe that Martin doesn't represent much of a change from past Liberal governments. But only four in ten (39%) of those living in Saskatchewan/Manitoba are of this opinion.

Martin Somewhat Successful in Communicating His Vision for Canada

Martin seems to have been mildly successful in communicating his vision to the Canadian public, as six in ten (57%) Canadians agree that he has given them a good idea about where he wants to take the country (42% somewhat agree, 14% strongly agree). One third of Canadians (35%) believe that Prime Minister Martin has not done a good job in outlining what his plans are for the country (22% somewhat disagree, 14% strongly disagree).

There are no noteworthy demographic variations with respect to opinions about whether Martin has provided a good idea about where he wants to take the country.

So Far, Martin Has Done a Slightly Better Job Than Chretien

Half (47%) of Canadians feel that Prime Minister Paul Martin is doing a better job than his predecessor Jean Chrйtien (33% somewhat agree, 14% strongly agree). But a third of respondents (34%) disagree with this notion (24% somewhat disagree, 10% strongly disagree). One fifth (19%) of Canadians appear to be taking a "wait-and-see" attitude to Mr. Martin's government, as they state they `don't know.'

• Albertans (62%) are the most apt to believe that Paul Martin is doing a better job than his predecessor Jean Chrйtien, with Quebecers (42%) and Atlantic Canadians (42%) being the least likely to believe so.

• Men are significantly more likely than women to believe that Paul Martin is doing a better job than his predecessor (50% men vs. 43% women).

Half Say Martin Will Run a More Ethical Government

A small majority of Canadians (55%) agree with the statement that Paul Martin will run a more ethical government than Jean Chrйtien did (37% somewhat agree, 17% strongly agree). This is in comparison to the four in ten Canadians (36%) who do not believe that Mr. Martin will run a more ethical administration than Chrйtien did (23% somewhat disagree, 12% strongly disagree).

• Martin scores highly in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (66%) and Atlantic Canada (65%) when it comes to the question of whether he will run a more ethical government than Jean Chrйtien did. Albertans trail closely (58%), followed by Ontario (53%), Quebec (51%), and British Columbia (50%).

• The older Canadians are, the more likely they are to believe that Martin will run a more ethical government than Chrйtien (52% aged 18-34, 53% aged 35-54, 60% aged 55+).

• Men are significantly more inclined than women to believe that Martin will run a more ethical government than Chrйtien did (59% men vs. 51% women).

• Those with the highest levels of education are the most sceptical about whether Martin will run a more ethical government than Chrйtien, (62% of those with some high school education or less believe he will run a more ethical government, 55% among those with high school education, 54% some post-secondary or college diploma, and 53% of those with a University degree or more).

Please open the attached PDF files to view the press release and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900