Carney-Led Liberals (42%, +4) Expand Lead Over Stagnant Conservatives (36%, no change) and Weak NDP (10%, -2)

Mark Carney’s decisive victory in the Liberal Party leadership race is translating into a surge in voter support. With a potential election looming, the Carney-led Liberals (42%) now hold a six-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (36%) among decided voters. If these numbers hold through election day, the Liberals could secure Canada’s first majority government since Justin Trudeau’s 2015 win. Crucially, the Liberals lead in seat-heavy Ontario and Quebec, along with a strong showing in British Columbia — putting them in a dominant electoral position. Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP continues to struggle, sitting far behind the two leading parties at just 10%. In Quebec, Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois trails the surging Liberals by 15 points. Demographically, the Liberals perform well among those 18-34 and 55+, while the Conservatives remain strongest with those 35-54.

In alignment with the Liberals’ strength on vote intention, Mark Carney is the top choice for the federal candidate who would make the best Prime Minister (42%), leading Pierre Poilievre (32%) by ten percentage points. Just over one in ten (12%) feel Jagmeet Singh would make best Prime Minister of Canada, with the other federal leaders in the single digits. Nearly six in ten (58%) think it’s time for another federal party to take over leadership, though this has decreased by 19 points since December 2024, before Carney assumed leadership of the Liberal party.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between March 14 and 17, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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