Carney Liberals Open Up Double-Digit Lead

The Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to gain momentum in week two of election campaigning (46%, +2), opening a double-digit lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives (34%, -4 pts) among decided voters. This level of national support firmly places the Liberals in majority-government territory if the election were held today. The Liberals hold a lead in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Ten percent overall say they would vote for the NDP (+1 pt), 6% for the Bloc Quebecois (+1 pt), amounting to 26% in Quebec, 3% for the Green Party (+1 pt), and 1% for the People’s Party of Canada (no change).  Seven percent remain undecided in their vote.

Nearly one half of Canadians continue to select Mark Carney as the best candidate for Prime Minister of Canada (45%, +1 pt vs. last week), while just under one-third (32%, -1 pt) think Pierre Poilievre would make the best Prime Minister and 12% choose Jagmeet Singh (12%, +4 pts).

Consistent with last week, around half (47%, +1 pt) say the Carney Liberal government has done a good job and deserves re-election, closely mirroring their share of the popular vote. Conversely, 53% (+3 pts) say it’s time for another federal party to take over in Ottawa.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 1st and 3rd, 2025, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

“Game Changers” – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

http://www.ipsos.com/