Conservatives Ahead In British Columbia
The Conservatives are currently out front in British Columbia with the support of 33% of decided and leaning voters. The battle for second place is a dead-heat, with both the Liberals and NDP at 27% support. The Green Party is a distant fourth place, but possible spoiler, at 10%. These results exclude the 14% of British Columbians who express no preference for any party.
These results illustrate the substantial growth of the NDP and Green Party in British Columbia since the 2000 federal election. The NDP is up 16-points from 2000 (11% to 27%) and the Green Party is up 8-points (2% to 10%). Their gains have come at the expense of the Conservative Party, who though leading at 33% today, are down 23-points from the combined 56% support captured by the Alliance (49%) and Progressive Conservatives (7%) in the last election. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party is virtually unchanged from the November 2000 (28% in 2000, 27% today).
An exclusive seat model prepared for CTV and the Globe and Mail by Ipsos-Reid suggests the Conservatives would dominate in British Columbia based on current results. The Conservatives are projected to have 23 to 25 seats in the province, compared with the Liberals with 6 to 8 seats and the NDP with 4 to 6 seats. There are 36 seats in British Columbia.
The regional results show unique contests in each area of the province.
- The Liberals (38%) lead in the Northwest sector of the Lower Mainland (Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster and North Shore). The NDP is second best (32%) with the Conservatives (21%) trailing by a substantial margin.
- The rest of the Lower Mainland is Conservative country. The Conservatives (42%) have a sizeable lead over both the Liberals (25%) and NDP (22%).
- All four major parties are in the fight on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives (30%) are in the lead, followed by the NDP (26%), Liberals (22%) and Green Party (18%).
- In the Interior/North of British Columbia, the Conservatives (37%) have a 10-point lead over the NDP (27%) and a 14-point lead over the Liberals (23%). There are also differences by voter age and sex.
- The Conservatives do better with men (39% vs. 28% women) and older voters (41% 55+years vs. 33% 35-54 years, 25% 18-34 years).
- The NDP does better with women (30% vs. 23% men).
- The Green Party does better with younger voters (14% 18-34 years vs. 10% 35-54 years, 6% 55+ years).
Liberal voters are more likely than supporters of other parties to say "the party leaders" are most important (27% vs. 17% Conservatives, 12% NDP).
These are the findings of three Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail polls conducted between June 1st and June 8th, 2004. This includes the BC portion (266 total interviews) of two national polls conducted June 4th to June 8th and a special BC Booster Sample of 800 interviews conducted June 1st to June 8th. All polls were conducted with a representative randomly selected sample of adult British Columbians. For the question on party vote preference (n=1066), the results are considered accurate to within 1773.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult British Columbian population been polled. For the question on voter motivation (n=800, asked only of BC Booster Sample), the results are considered accurate to within 1773.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbian population according to the 2001 Census.
For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:
Ipsos-Reid Seat Projection Model
For more information on this press release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President, Ipsos-Reid
Vancouver, BC
604.257.3200
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