Consumer Confidence in Economy Takes Off Like a Rocket

42% Say Economy Will Improve in the Next Year - Up 19% Since November '01 - Highest Level Since May 1998 (44%)
Alberta (+31 points), British Columbia (+23 points), and Ontario (+19 points) Lead the Way

Toronto, ONTARIO- According to an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released tonight, four in ten (42%) Canadians believe that the Canadian economy will improve over the next year -- up 19 points from November 2001 (23%) and is now at it's highest level since May 1998 when it stood at 44%.

Alberta (50%; up 31 points), and British Columbia (43%; up 23 points) lead the revival in optimism regarding the direction of the economy, followed by Ontario (46%; up 19 points).

A similar number (44%) believe that the economy will stay about the same (up from 36%). While the proportion of Canadians who feel that the economy will get worse (14%) over the next year has declined 26 points since November when four-in-ten (40%) expressed this view.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between March 12th and March 14th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadians population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

With the reported up swing in the America economy, and continued positive economic indicators, four in ten (42%) Canadians believe that the Canadian economy will improve over the next year, up 19 points from November 2001 (23%). This is the highest level since May 1998 when 44% felt the economy would improve over the next year.

  • Alberta (50%; +31 points), British Columbia (43%; +23 points) lead the revival in optimism regarding the direction of the economy, followed by Ontario (46%; +19 points). This compares to Atlantic Canada (39%; +14 points), Quebec (36%; +14 points) with Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%; +5 points) as the least positive province.
  • Older Canadians (50%), are more likely to be optimistic regarding the economy than those in the middle (43%) or younger (34%) age groups.
  • Canadians from the highest household income group (54%) are more likely than those in the middle (37%) or lowest household income (31%) groups to express optimism regarding the economy.
  • Men (46% versus 37% of women) are more likely to feel that the economy will improve over the next year.

A similar number (44%) believe that the economy will stay about the same (up from 36%) over the next year.

  • Regionally, those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%; +19 points) and Quebec (50%; +8 points) are more likely than those in other regions to feel that the economy will stay about the same, followed by those in Atlantic Canada (43%; +2 points), British Columbia (41%; +10 points), and Ontario (41%; +10 points). Residents of Alberta (37%; +2 points) are the least likely to view the economy in this way.
  • Canadians in the middle household income group (50%), are more likely to express this view than those in either the lower (45%) or higher (38%) household income groups.
  • Women (47%) are more likely to feel this way about the economy than men (41%).
  • Younger (47%) and middle aged (45%) Canadians are more likely than their older (38%) counterparts to believe this to be the case regarding the economy.

The proportion of Canadians who feel that the economy will get worse (14%) over the next year has declined 26 points since November when four-in-ten (40%) expressed this view.

  • The most pessimistic regions regarding the economy are those on either coast. Atlantic Canadians (17%; -17 points) and British Columbians (16%; -32 points) are more likely than those in the other regions to feel the economy will worsen over the next year.
  • Canadians from the lowest household income group (23%) are more likely than their counterparts in the middle (12%) or upper (7%) household income group.
  • Younger (18%) Canadians are more likely to be pessimistic about the economy than middle aged (12%) or older (11%) Canadians.

To view the complete release and tables, please download the attached PDF file.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900

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