Consumer Economic Confidence Remains High
The Ipsos-Reid Canadian Economic Confidence Index (112.33), provided exclusively to the Report on Business Section of the Globe and Mail, reveals that positive expectations of interest rate drops, positive home purchase intentions, low job anxiety, and optimistic personal economic forecasting continue to fuel economic confidence, but to a slightly lesser degree than in the past.
The proportion of Canadians predicting an increase in interest rates (44%) has increased since our last soundings in July and June (39%), but still remains much lower than findings from earlier this year (66% March). One in seven (14%) think rates will go down (down from 18% in July), while the remaining four in ten (39%) think they will stay as is. The slight dip in the Economic Confidence Index since last month (116.88) is mainly a result of the nominal decrease in the percentage of Canadians who expect interest rates to go down.
One in seven (14%) Canadians indicate a likelihood that they will purchase a new or another home at this time--5% are "very likely" while 8% are "somewhat likely." Home purchase intentions continue to boost the Economic Confidence Index.
A mere one in five (21%) Canadians are worried about either themselves or someone in their household losing their job--this proportion is virtually identical to July's findings (20%). Record low levels of job anxiety were witnessed in February (16%), March (18%), and April (16%), while during the recession (1993) job anxiety reached 35%. Although today's findings are virtually identical to July, the nominal increase in job anxiety has decreased the level to which job security is boosting economic confidence.
The percentage of Canadians who feel their own economic situation will improve (37%) is virtually identical to the findings from our last sounding in July (38%). Half (48%) continue to think their personal economic situation will remain the same, and one in seven (15%) think it will get worse. The net score (percentage who feel it will improve minus the percentage who feel it will get worse) therefore is +22, down from +26 in July. Marginal changes in personal economic forecasting are dampening the level to which personal economic forecasting is boosting the Economic Confidence Index.
Big-ticket and day-to-day spending attitudes are currently dragging the index, but they do show signs of improving.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between August 19th and August 21st, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1058 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.
To view the complete release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
