Despite Continued Controversies, Liberal Vote (43%) Holds Static Since May

Toronto, ONTARIO - After a month of continuing scandals, cabinet shuffles, and internal leadership issues, the federal Liberal Party continues to lead in voter popularity according to an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released this evening. In fact, despite continuing controversies, the Liberals remain at 43% of decided voter support--exactly where they were in May, 2002.

The opposition parties have apparently not benefited much from any fall-out as they all remain mired far behind with support for the Canadian Alliance (17%; down one point), the Progressive Conservatives (16%; up one point) and the NDP (14%; up one point) holding virtually static. The Bloc Quebecois remains at 10% in national support and tied with the Liberals in Quebec at 39%.

In the battle between Prime Minister Chretien and his former Minister of Finance, Paul Martin, it appears that among decided Liberal voters, the nod goes to Mr. Martin. In fact, eight in ten (79%) indicate that if they were able to vote in the upcoming Liberal leadership review process they would vote for a leadership review. One in five (19%) say they would vote no to such a proposition.

And if they were a delegate to a Liberal leadership convention, 46% of decided Liberal supporters indicate they would choose Paul Martin over current leader and Prime Minister, Jean Chretien (31%). One-fifth (19%) say they would choose neither candidate and 3% are undecided.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between June 11th and June 20th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 2,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Liberals Hold Steady In Popular Vote Since May (43%)

After a month of continuing scandals, cabinet shuffles, and internal leadership issues, the federal Liberal Party (43%, static since May) continue to be the most popular political party choice in the country.

Regionally, support for the Liberals is highest in Ontario (53%), followed by Atlantic Canada (49%), Quebec (39%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (37%), British Columbia (28%), and Alberta (26%).

• There is no significant difference in Liberal support across age, income or gender grous.

Alliance (17%), Conservatives (16%), NDP (14%) Trail Behind

The opposition parties remain mired far behind with support for the Canadian Alliance (17%; down one point), the Progressive Conservatives (16%; up one point) and the NDP (14%; up one point) remaining virtually static.

• Support for the Canadian Alliance is highest in their traditional Western Canada strongholds of Alberta (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (32%), and British Columbia (31%) while their support is lower in Ontario (14%), Atlantic Canada (9%) and Quebec (3%).
• Alliance support is also more prevalent among Canadians 55 years of age and older (21% versus 15% for those under age 55), men (20% versus 13% of women) and among middle (18%) and higher (17%) income households (versus 13% of lower income households).
• Support for the Tories is highest in Atlantic Canada (25%) and Ontario (21%) where they run second to the Liberals, followed by Alberta (17%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (14%) and British Columbia (14%), with lowest support in Quebec (5%).
• Higher income households (19%) are more likely to express support for the Conservatives than middle (17%) or lower (12%) income households.
• The New Democratic Party receives their strongest support in British Columbia (21%) followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%), Atlantic Canada (15%), Alberta (13%), Quebec (12%) and Ontario (11%).
• While NDP support across gender and age groups is consistent, support is stronger among lower (17%) and middle (13%) income households than among upper (11%) income households. Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (10% nationally) receive support of 39% of decided voters in a dead heat with the Liberals (39%).

Eight in Ten (79%)of Liberal Decided Voters Want A Review of Party Leadership And, 46% Would Choose Paul Martin Over Jean Chretien (31%) In A Leadership Contest

In the on-going battle between Prime Minister Chretien and his former Minister of Finance, Paul Martin, it appears, at least among decided Liberal voters, the nod goes to Mr. Martin. In fact, eight in ten (79%) indicate that if they were able to vote in the upcoming Liberal leadership review process they would vote yes to a leadership review. One in five (19%) indicate they would vote no to such a proposition.

• Regionally, support for a leadership review is strongest among Liberal supporters in Alberta (82%), followed by Ontario (81%), British Columbia (78%), Atlantic Canada (77%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (75%) and Quebec (75%).
• Middle aged (81%), and older (80%) decided Liberal voters are more only slightly more likely to prefer a leadership review than younger (76%) supporters.
• Supporters in the highest (82%) and those in middle income households (79%) are more likely to express support for a yes vote than those in the lowest (75%) income households.

And if there were to be a delegate to a Liberal leadership convention, 46% of decided Liberal voters indicate they would choose Paul Martin over current leader and Prime Minister, Jean Chretien (31%) . One-fifth (19%) say they would choose neither candidate, and 3% say they "don't know."

• Mr. Martin receives the highest support among Liberal supporters in Quebec (59%), followed by British Columbia (53%), Ontario (45%) Alberta (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (38%) and Atlantic Canada (27%).
• Meanwhile, Mr. Chretien's potential supporters are decided Liberals in Atlantic Canada (41%), followed by Alberta (35%), Ontario (33%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%), Quebec (27%) and British Columbia (24%).
• Male Liberal supporters (53%) are more like to say they would choose Mr. Martin in a Liberal Leadership vote than Liberal women (40%). However, women (34%) are slightly more likely than men (29%) to say they would vote for the Prime Minister.
• Older (59%) Liberal supporters are more likely than younger (33%) supporters to indicate they would choose Mr. Martin. Younger (36%) supporters are more likely than their older counterparts (30% of those 35-54 and 27% of those 55+) to indicate support for Mr. Chretien.
• Mr. Martin also appears to receive the vote of Liberal supporters in upper (55%) and middle (44%) income households, compared to only 34% of supporters in lower income households. This compares with lower income Liberal households (40%) and middle (35%) and upper (23%) income house holds who would vote for Mr. Chretien.

For full tabular results, please view the attached link above.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900