Liberals Open Double-Digit National Lead Over the Conservatives in Advance of By-Elections
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (45%, +1 pt vs. March 2026) would have a larger lead over the Conservatives than they had a month ago (33%, -3 pts vs. March). Still lagging behind is the NDP (9%, +1 pt). The Bloc Québécois would garner 7% of the national vote (no change), 29% in Quebec, while the Green party would receive 3% (no change) and the PPC 2% (+1 pt). Support for the Conservatives is highest in Alberta (48%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%), while those 55+ (53%) and those living in Ontario (52%) are more likely to lean Liberal. While historically men have been less likely to vote Liberal than women, men (45%) and women (44%) are now just as likely to vote for the party.
In the lead-up to by-elections in three key federal electoral districts, Canadians are split on whether they would want the Liberals to win enough of them to form a majority government in the House of Commons (53%), or whether they’d like to see the Liberals lose enough that they remain a minority government (47%). Notably, NDP voters are only slightly more likely to want a Liberal majority (56%) than to prefer a minority government (44%).
Just under six in ten Canadians (57%) feel that the amount of time Prime Minister Mark Carney has spent outside of Canada visiting with foreign leaders is appropriate and is paying off for Canada, while fewer (43%) feel it is excessive and has accomplished little. Conservative voters (75%) are far more likely to see Carney’s foreign visits as excessive. Liberal supporters are strongly in favour of Carney’s foreign visits (88%), in line with sturdy popularity among Liberals of his leadership. Support for Carney’s foreign visits is also strong among NDP voters (70%) but weaker among Bloc Québécois voters (47%), who are more likely to see them as excessive (53%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 2 and 7, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
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