Despite Election Rhetoric, Seven in Ten (68%) Canadians Say There's `No Need for an Election', Majority (51%) Says Country Heading in
`Right Direction', Minority (41%) `Wrong'
Volatile Party Standings Don't Give Either Major Party Edge
Toronto, ON - Despite rumblings and rhetoric that could potentially lead to a summer election triggered by a showdown over Employment Insurance, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television has revealed that the vast majority (68%) of Canadians believe that `there's no need for an election' at the moment and that the `federal political process is operating just fine'.
Conversely, just three in ten (27%) more closely identify with the sentiment that `Parliament and our federal political process is hopelessly deadlocked right now and that we really need an election to clear the air'. Five percent (5%) don't know with which statement they more closely identify.
Comparing these data to when the same question was asked in 2008 reveals that public support for an election is much less now than it was a year ago. While in March of 2008 only 27% of Canadians wanted an election, that proportion rose to 43% in June of 2008, 16 points higher than it is currently.
While one half (51%) of Canadians believe that, overall, `things in this country are headed in the right direction' (down 4 points), four in ten (41%) believe that `they are off on the wrong direction' (up 4 points). The spread between the two data points has dropped from 18 points to 10 points since January.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff would receive 36% support among decided voters (up 3 points), while Prime Minister Harper and the Conservatives would receive 33% of the vote (down 2 points). The NDP, led by Jack Layton, would receive 12% support (down 2 points), while Elizabeth May and the Green Party would receive 9% support (up 1 point). The Bloc and Gilles Duceppe have 9% support nationally (unchanged). Six percent (6%) remain undecided.
The overall vote numbers are being driven by volatility within the province of Ontario, where the Grits (41%) have once again taken the lead over the Tories (34%). The NDP (14%) and the Green Party (10%) trail.
In Quebec the Bloc (38%) and Liberals (37%) are in a statistical tie for first position. The Green Party (10%), Conservatives (8%) and NDP (8%) are all clustered at the bottom of the heap.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from June 2 to 4, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,018 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos
company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.
About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.
In 2008, Ipsos generated global revenues of e979.3 million ($1.34 billion U.S.).
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