Despite NDP Surge, Tories Poised to Win Monday's Election

Toronto, ON - Despite the recent surge of the NDP and Jack Layton, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party are poised to win Monday's Federal Election, but voter turnout on Election Day will tell whether it will be a Tory minority or majority government.

A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National reveals that, if Election Day were tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 38% of the popular vote among decided voters (down 5 points). Jack Layton and his New Democratic Party would receive 33% of the vote (up 9 points), largely driven by a remarkable groundswell of support in Quebec.

The once mighty Liberals under the leadership of Michael Ignatieff have been drawn down to one of the worst showings in memory: 18% (down 3 points). As for Elizabeth May and her Green Party, only 4% of the vote (unchanged) is mustered in this survey. Nationally, Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois are at 7% (up 1 point) but regionally they have taken a drastic fall since previous support in Quebec to a mere 26%.

Just six percent (6%) of Canadians are undecided.

Clearly, getting the committed vote out on Election Day Monday may mean more than ever to the Tory vote motivating machinery as it could very well be the determining factor in whether the Conservatives win yet another minority government or their coveted majority.

While the Conservatives have lost some ground over the last week, Conservative voters are also the most likely to say they're 'absolutely certain' to vote in the election (72%) with Liberal supporters not far behind (71%), followed by the NDP (67%), Green (62%) and Bloc (61%) supporters.

Further, their supporters appear to be the most committed: three quarters (72%) Conservative supporters say that they are `absolutely certain' that this is the party that they will support come Election Day, higher than the proportion of Liberal (64%), NDP (63%), Bloc (60%) or Green Party (54%) supporters who say that their vote is locked in.

The following is a closer look at some of the key regions of the country where the battle will be lost or won for many of the parties:

• While the NDP have made gains across the country, the overall surge is driven by unprecedented gains in Quebec. The NDP (42%) solidly leads the Bloc Quebecois (26%), Conservatives (15%), Liberals (13%) and Green Party (3%).
• In Ontario, the Conservatives (40%) remain in first place, with the NDP in second (34%), the Liberals in third (21%) and the Green Party trailing (6%).
• In British Columbia, the Tories (42%) have a solid lead over the NDP (29%), the Liberals (26%), and the Green Party (3%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Postmedia News and Global Television from April 26-28, 2011. For the survey, a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,710 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone, including 100 cellphone completes. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

(Click to enlarge image)

(Click to enlarge image)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2010, Ipsos generated global revenues of e1.140 billion ($1.6 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos-na.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP