Despite Post Mini-Budget Surge In Ontario,
Tories Still Shy Of Magic 40% Majority

Ottawa, ON - In a week where Finance Minister Jim Flaherty delivered an Economic Update on the state of Canada's economy and finances, and promised to cut taxes and the GST to 5% in the new year, a new Ipsos Reid poll conduced exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television during the three evenings following the announcement reveals that, nationally, the Conservatives have not gained any favour among voters despite a generally positive assessment of Flaherty's mini-budget and announced tax cuts.

The Conservatives maintain their position at 39% of decided voters, while the Liberals have gained one point and sit at 28%, representing a lead of 11 points for the Tories. The NDP, however, have dropped to 13% support, a decline of 4 points, while the Green Party has slipped to 7% support, a decline of 1 point.

However, there has been considerable movement within the provinces. Within Quebec, the Bloc are now receiving the support of 50% of Quebecers (12% nationally), which represents an increase of 16 points (3 points nationally) over last week, while the Conservatives slip to 22% support, a decline of 8 points since last week. The Liberals have the support of 17% of Quebecers (up one 1 point), while the NDP trail at 7% support (decrease of 6 points), with 3% for the Green Party (decrease of 4 points).

In vote-rich Ontario, though, the Conservatives appear to have benefited from a surge, perhaps as a result of Flaherty's mini-budget. The Conservatives have the support of 43% of Ontarians, an increase of 6 points since last week, while the Liberals declined to 34% support, a decrease of 1 point since last week. The NDP has 14% support among Ontarians, while the Green Party is at 8% support in Ontario.

Focusing on Finance Minister Flaherty's economic statement and mini-budget, very few Canadians believe that the mini-budget and the tax cuts associated with it are bad news for the country and for Canadians. More specifically, four in ten (41%) Canadians would say that the economic update, overall, is good, and that they would `symbolically give it two thumbs up'. Just one in twelve (8%) Canadians believe that the announcement was bad, and that they would `symbolically give it two thumbs down'. For forty-three percent (43%) of Canadians, though, the mini-budget left them unmoved and with the belief that it was `neither good nor bad' and that they would `symbolically just shrug their shoulders'.

Thinking about how the economic statement and mini-budget affects different segments of the Canadian population, this is what Canadians had to say:

• One half (50%) of Canadians believe the statement was `good news' for taxpayers in general, compared to one in nine (11%) who thought that it was `bad news', and three in ten (27%) who said that it was `neither good news nor bad news'.
• A similar proportion (49%) believe that the statement was `good news' for corporations, compared to just 7% who thought that Flaherty's announcement was `bad news' for corporations, and three in ten (27%) who believed the statement to be `neither good nor bad news' for corporations.
• Slightly fewer (46%) believe that the economic update was `good news' for working people, while one in nine (11%) thought it to be `bad news' for working people. Three in ten (30%) thought that Flaherty's announcement was `neither good news nor bad news' for working people.
• Forty-Six percent (46%) thought that the mini-budget was `good news' for them and their families, while one in eleven (9%) believed it to be `bad news' for their families. One third (33%) of Canadians thought that it represented `neither good news nor bad news' for them and their families.
• Four in ten (44%) believe that the mini-budge was `good news' for the people in their local community, while one eleven (9%) thought that it was `bad news' for the people in their community. One in three (34%) had no assessment either way of the impact of the budget on the people in their community.

Despite the overwhelming prevalence of either positive or neutral assessments of the economic statement and mini-budget, many Canadians believe that Minister Flaherty could have done more with his tax cuts. While one in three (34%) Canadians believe that, in light of the growing federal surplus, Minister Flaherty struck `the right balance' of tax cuts in his mini-budget, four in ten (41%) Canadians would have liked to have seen `more tax cuts', while 16% indicate that they wanted `fewer tax cuts' than what was announced.

But when it comes down to it, six in ten (59%) Canadians believe that `the tax cuts that the minister has announced are just fine because it will increase consumer spending and fuel the economy, and there is still money in the surplus for investment in government programs such as health care'. However, one in three (34%) Canadians more closely identify with the statement that `the tax cuts were not such a good idea because, regardless of the consumer spending that takes place, because the Finance Minster should be giving money to the provinces and cities across the country to improve their infrastructure and programs'. Seven percent (6%) of Canadians, though, do not know with which sentiment they more closely identify.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from Oct 30-Nov-1, 2007. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Significant Regional Swings...

• In Quebec the Conservatives have trailed off slightly, decreasing from 30% support last week to 22% support this week. The Bloc, however, has rallied from 34% support last week to 50% support this week. The NDP have gone from 13% support to 7% support this week, while the Green Party has dipped from 7% to 3% within Quebec.
• In Ontario, the Tories have opened a nine-point lead over the Liberals. The Tories have surged from 37% to 43% within this seat-rich province, while the have dropped one point from 35% to 34% within the last week. The NDP have dropped from 19% to 14% within Ontario, while the Green Party has held steady at 8% support.
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives have decreased by 6 points since last week and now sit at 42% support, while the Liberals have increased by 3 points and now have the support of 28% of British Columbians. The NDP is holding steady at 16% support, while the Green Party has also held steady at 11% support.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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