Into The Election Window: Part 4

Almost Half (47%) Choose Paul Martin As Best Prime Minster...Up 8 Points Since March 25th Poll. Despite Sag In Recent Polls, Paul Martin And Liberal Party Get The Most Support (44%) As Party And Leader Who Will Likely Provide Best Overall Government For Canada Compared To Other Parties.

Toronto, ON: Despite sagging fortunes in the most recent poll numbers for his federal Liberal Party, more Canadians today (47%) think Prime Minister Martin would "make the best Prime Minister of Canada" than thought so over a month ago (March 25th, 2004 -- 39%) when given a choice between all of the party leaders according to a poll released tonight by CTV and The Globe and Mail conducted by Ipsos-Reid.

Most Canadians (56%) also disagree with the statement that "Paul Martin is no different than Jean Chrйtien".

And while Prime Minister Paul Martin and the federal Liberals garner the most support (44%) as the party and party leader that would "provide the best overall government for Canada", most (70%) of Quebec residents agree that the Bloc Quebecois is the best party to represent Quebec's interests in Ottawa.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between May 11th and May 17th, 2004. For the telephone survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001Census data.

Almost Half (47%) Choose Paul Martin As Best Prime Minster...Up 8 Points Since March 25th Poll...

Almost half (47%) of Canadians believe that current Prime Minister Paul Martin, leader of the Federal Liberal Party, would "make the best Prime Minister of Canada" (up 8 points from 39% at March 25th), while 23% point to Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party as the leader who would "make the best Prime Minister of Canada" (down 2 points from 25%), 13% point to Jack Layton, leader of the Federal New Democratic Party (down 1 point from 13%). In Quebec, 26% point to Gilles Duceppe as the leader who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (up 3 points from 23%). And 1% of Canadians think Jim Harris, leader of the Green Party would be the best Prime Minister of Canada (down 2 points from 3%). Among the rest of Canadians, 2% offer some "other" candidate, and 8% "don't know".

  • Half of the residents of Atlantic Canada (55%), Ontario (51%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (50%), believe that Prime Minister Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, while just over four in ten in British Columbia (44%), Alberta (41%), and Quebec (40%) believe Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister.
  • One quarter of decided Conservative supporters (23%), NDP supporters (24%) and Bloc Quйbйcois (26%) supporters, believe Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, compared to 84% of Liberal decided supporters.
  • Four in ten in Alberta (39%) believe that Stephen Harper would make the best Prime Minister of Canada - the highest in the county, followed by 27% in British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (27%), 23% in Ontario, 22% in Atlantic Canada, and 14% in Quebec.
  • Jack Layton, leader of the federal New Democratic Party has his greatest amount of support for being chosen best Prime Minister of Canada in British Columbia (21%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (17%), Ontario (15%), Alberta (12%), Atlantic Canada (9%), and Quebec (7%).
  • Jim Harris, leader of the Green Party of Canada receives 1% of support in British Columbia as for making the best Prime Minister of Canada and 1% in Quebec. Mr. Harris receives no support in any other region of the country.

Most (56%) Disagree Paul Martin No Different Than Jean Chrйtien ...

Most Canadians (56%) disagree with the statement "Paul Martin is no different than Jean Chrйtien" (29% "somewhat", 27% "strongly"). In contrast, 42% of Canadians agree with this statement (19% "somewhat", 23% "strongly"). The remaining 2% of Canadians "don't know".

  • Residents of British Columbia (62%) are most likely to disagree with this statement, followed by residents in Ontario (61%), Atlantic Canada (61%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (60%), Alberta (50%), and Quebec (46%).
  • Residents of Quebec (52%) are the most inclined to agree with this statement, followed by Alberta (48%), British Columbia (38%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (38%), Ontario (37%), and Atlantic Canada (37%).
Of those who agree (42%) that Paul Martin is no different than Jean Chrйtien, most (68%) believe this is "bad". Conversely, three in ten (29%)of this group think that Paul Martin being no different than Mr. Chrйtien is "good". The remaining 4% "don't know".
  • Residents of British Columbia (79%) are most inclined to think that Paul Martin being similar to Jean Chrйtien is a bad thing, followed by residents in Alberta (73%), Ontario (67%), Quebec (65%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (64%), and Atlantic Canada (62%).
  • Among those who agree that Paul Martin is no different than Jean Chrйtien, seven in ten decided Liberal voters (72%) believe that this is a good thing, compared to 17% who thinks so among NDP decided voters, and 10% who think so among decided Conservative voters.

Paul Martin And Liberal Party Get Most Support (44%) As Leader Who Will Likely Provide Best Overall Government For Canada Compared To Other Parties...

When considering the various leaders and their parties, more than four in ten Canadians (44%) point to Paul Martin and the Liberal Party as most likely to "provide the best overall government for Canada". In comparison, 28% of Canadians believe Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party are most likely to "provide the best overall government for Canada", while 13% believe Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party are most likely to do the same.

In Quebec, 40% believe Paul Martin and the federal Liberal Party would provide the best overall government, compared to 23% who believe Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois are the most likely to do so.

Among the rest of Canadians 1% think Jim Harris, leader of the Green Party of Canada is the leader who will provide the best overall government, and 8% "don't know".

  • Half of the residents in Ontario (50%) and Atlantic Canada (50%) believe that Paul Martin will "provide the best overall government for Canada", four in ten think so in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (44%), British Columbia (41%), and Quebec (40%), with just three in ten (31%) feeling this way in Alberta.
  • Half of Albertans (48%) think Stephen Harper "will provide the best overall government for Canada" - the highest proportion in Canada, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (31%), Atlantic Canada (30%), British Columbia (30%), Ontario (27%), and Quebec (18%).
  • As for Jack Layton and the NDP, they receive their largest support for providing the best overall government for Canada in British Columbia (21%), followed by Alberta (14%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (14%), Ontario (14%), Atlantic Canada (12%), and Quebec (9%).

But, Seven In Ten Residents of Quebec Agree The Bloc Is The Best Party To Represent Quebec's Interests In Ottawa...

Seven in ten (70%) residents in Quebec agree "the Bloc is the best party for representing Quebec's interests in Ottawa" (21% "somewhat agree", 50% "strongly agree"), while 28% disagree (10% "somewhat disagree", 18% "strongly disagree"). The remaining 2% of Quebec residents "don't know".

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & C.O.O
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

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