Federal Campaign Gridlocked

Toronto, ON - With the first week and debate of the marathon campaign behind them, the three major federal parties are gridlocked. No party has emerged as the clear front-runner, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News.

The poll of over 2,000 eligible voters conducted online and by live telephone interviews reveals that if the election were held tomorrow, 33% of decided voters would vote for the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair, down just 1 point since the end of July. The incumbent Conservatives led by Prime Minister Harper would receive 31% of the vote (down 2 points), while 28% would vote for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals (up 3 points). The Grits are now just five points behind the front-running NDP, confirming that this election is a three-way race.

Four percent (4%, down 1 point) would vote for the Bloc Quebecois led by Gilles Duceppe (16% in Quebec), and 4% would vote for Elizabeth May's Green Party (up 1 point). Fewer than one percent (0.5%) would vote for some other party. One in ten (9%) eligible voters remains completely undecided, and 4% say they would not vote or would spoil their ballot.

The government benches will be won or lost in the key seat-rich regions of the country. The regional figures are as follows:

• In Ontario, the Conservatives (33%) and Liberals (33%) are tied, with the NDP not far behind (29%). The Green Party (4%) and others (1%) trail.
• In Quebec, the NDP (41%) has a solid lead over the Liberals (22%), Conservatives (19%), Bloc (16%), Green (1%) and others (1%).
• In BC, the NDP (37%) also leads the Conservatives (27%), Liberals (26%), Greens (10%) and others (0.4%).
• In Alberta, the Tories (50%) have half the vote, followed by the NDP (30%), Liberals (17%), and Green Party (4%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (47%) are ahead of the NDP (27%), Liberals (21%) and Greens (5%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (47%) have the lead, while the NDP (31%), Conservatives (18%), Greens (3%) and others (1%) are well behind.

Only 31% of eligible voters believe that the `Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election' (down 6 points since April 2015), compared to 67% who think it's `time for another federal party to take over' (up 4 points). Two percent (2%) don't know.

Equally troubling for the Conservatives is that just four in ten (41%) believe that things in Canada are heading in the `right direction' while a majority (56%) believes things are `off on the wrong track'. Three percent (3%) don't know. By comparison, during the 2011 campaign, 57% thought things were on the right track at the time, while 43% thought things were heading in the wrong direction.

Interestingly, one quarter (25%) of eligible voters say that this is the first time they're voting for their respective choice in a federal election, either because they're first-time voters or because they're voting for a party they've never voted for before. This is especially true among NDP voters, where 37% say they're voting for this party for the very first time, a significantly higher proportion than the Liberal (23%), Bloc (18%) and Conservative vote (13%). Nearly half (48%) of Green voters say they've never voted for them before this election.

The poll also shows that Tory support is essentially coming from their core that is most committed to supporting them no matter what. Over half (54%) of Conservative voters say they're `absolutely certain' that they'll vote for the Tories. By comparison, 47% of Bloc voters are `absolutely certain' that they'll support the Bloc on E-Day, and just 40% of NDP voters and Liberal (40%) voters are absolutely certain of their vote choice - suggesting that a higher proportion of potential vote switching will happen among current Liberal and NDP voters.

NDP, Liberals Have Most Room to Grow; Tories Much Less...

With more than two months until Election Day, the campaign is far from over. With only 43% of decided voters overall `absolutely certain' of their vote choice, the majority of votes technically remain up for grabs. Examining voters' second-choice preference gives some insight into how voters could change their minds going forward: the Liberals (25%) and NDP (24%) remain the parties that are disproportionately the second-choice of voters, suggesting that they both have room to grow. The Tories, on the other hand, are the second-choice for only 9% of voters, suggesting much less room for growth. The Green Party (6%), Bloc (4%) and other parties (1%) are much further behind as the second-choice of voters. One in three (32%) eligible voters are unsure of who their second choice might be.

• Among current Tory voters, the Liberals (24%) and NDP (23%) nearly split the second-choice vote, with the Greens (5%), Bloc (0.4%) and others (2%) further behind.
• Among current Liberal voters, the NDP (55%) is by far the preferred second choice, well ahead of the Tories (17%), Greens (4%), Bloc (2%) and other parties (0.4%).
• Among current NDP voters, 48% would vote for the Grits second, well ahead of the Conservatives (10%), Bloc (9%), Greens (9%) and others (1%).

Voters Say No Clear Winner in First Campaign Debate...

At this early juncture in the campaign, just three in ten (28%) eligible say they have a `great deal' of interest in following news about the upcoming Federal Election, roughly matching the 27% who watched some aspect of the Maclean's Debate. Among those who did, no clear winner has emerged: an equal proportion believes Trudeau (26%) and Mulcair (25%) won the debate, although Harper (21%) and May (20%) aren't far behind. One in ten (8%) doesn't know who won the debate.

Voters to Prime Minister Harper: Join the TV Consortium Debate...

Voters are sending a strong message to Prime Minister Stephen Harper: join the TV consortium debate. Eight in ten (83%) `agree' (54% strongly/30% somewhat) that they `think the Prime Minister should participate in the TV consortium debate', while two in ten (16%) `disagree' (6% strongly/10% somewhat) that he should, while 1% doesn't know. Even two thirds (67%) of Conservative voters believe the PM should re-join the debate. Voters are split on whether they like the new format for leaders' debates - smaller debates held by individual news outlets, but more of them. Half (50%) `agree' (11% strongly/39% somewhat) that they `prefer the new format for leaders' debates', while 44% `disagree' (17% strongly/27% somewhat) with the new format. Six percent (6%) don't know.

Two in three (65%) voters `agree' (32% strongly/32% somewhat) that they are `more likely to watch the major TV consortium debate than tune in to the smaller debates held', while one in three (34%) `disagrees' (12% strongly/22% somewhat) that they are. One percent (1%) doesn't know.

With most voters supporting the national TV consortium leaders' debate, six in ten (61%) `agree' (24% strongly/37% somewhat) that `national TV debates are important' in determining how they will vote. Four in ten (39%) `disagree' (16% strongly/23% somewhat) that they're important to them.

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These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between August 7 and 10, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 2,022 Canadians eligible to vote was interviewed: 1,022 were interviewed online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel, and 1,000 interviews were conducted by live-interviewer telephone (including 40% of interviews conducted on cellphone). Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

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