Federal Politics In BC June 2000

Manning Improves His Approval Rating To 59%; Closes Gap On Chrйtien (60%) Over Past Three Months

BC Public Very Satisfied With Alliance Opposition (66% Approve); New Party Opens 7-Point Gap With Liberal Government (59%) Since March Of This Year

Vancouver, BC - An early June 2000 Angus Reid Group survey in British Columbia finds that popular support for the federal Liberal party continues to slip the province, from 42 percent three months ago to 40 percent this quarter. Meanwhile, the federal Reform party in its new incarnation as the Canadian Alliance has experienced a dramatic increase in support among the BC public - 26 percent in March of this year to its current 36 percent standing. This returns the party to its post-1997 election high. None of the other federal parties is yet competitive in the province. "It appears that the Reform party's decision to build a new party and change its name to the Canadian Alliance earlier this year is bearing some fruit in British Columbia," observes Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs (Vancouver). "This is good news for the party as it prepares to choose its new leader this weekend. Of course, historically, the process of choosing a new leader has been known to produce a boost in popular support for all political parties. We'll have to wait until the hoopla dies down over the next few months to see if this jump in popularity for the Alliance has created any lasting effect in the province."

On the leadership front, six-in-ten British Columbians approve of Prime Minister Chrйtien's performance (60%), and of his Liberal government (59%). However, both are being eclipsed by the improved fortunes of Preston Manning (59% approve) and the Canadian Alliance opposition (66%). "The federal political scene in BC has suddenly become much more competitive", notes Mr. Daniel Savas. "After trailing Mr. Chrйtien and the Liberals for most of their mandate, the Canadian Alliance party, and Mr. Manning, seem to have struck a chord with the BC public; the momentum is clearly on the side of the Canadian Alliance at the present time."

This BC Angus Reid Group poll is based on a provincial telephone survey conducted between June 8th and June 13th, 2000 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbian adults. These data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional, age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC according to 1996 Census data. With a provincial sample of 600, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the overall results are within +4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult BC population been polled. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

New Canadian Alliance Party Jumps 10 Points To 36% of Popular Support In BC; Closes Gap on Federal Liberals (40%)

Currently 40 percent of decided voters in BC say they would vote Liberal in a federal election. This keeps the Liberals ahead of the Opposition Canadian Alliance party (36%), but the gap between the two parties has closed to only 4 points, down from 14 points in March of this year. The NDP (11%), Progressive Conservatives (8%), and Green party (5%) continue to languish in a distant third. One percent would vote for other parties.

The federal Liberals' popularity among BC voters has slipped another 2 percentage points over the past 3 months (42% to 40%); this is the third consecutive quarter the party has dropped in public support. At 40 percent, the Liberals are at their lowest point in popular support since September of 1997, immediately following the last federal election.

The new federal Canadian Alliance party meanwhile seems to have captured the attention of British Columbians as it prepares to select its new leader on June 24th. At 36 percent of popular support, the new party has jumped 10 full percentage points since our March poll when its predecessor, the Reform party, obtained 26 percent support.

Standings for the NDP have dropped 3 points since March (14% to 11%), while PC and Green party numbers have remained pretty much the same.

Overall, 9 percent of British Columbians are uncommitted as to which federal party they would support; this is up 3 points over last quarter's poll.

Regional and socio-demographic variations in federal party support are as follows:

• Federal Liberal support is similar across all regions of the province, and among all socio-demographic groups.
• The Canadian Alliance party obtains stronger support from people living in suburban Vancouver (44%), while it is weakest in Vancouver/Burnaby and on Vancouver Island (28% and 27%). It receives more support from men (40%, vs. 31% women), older British Columbians (54%), and people living in upper income households (45%).

Preston Manning Improves To 59% Approval Rating; Closes Gap on PM Chrйtien (60%)

Currently, 60 percent of British Columbians approve of the job Jean Chrйtien is doing as Prime Minister. While Preston Manning has officially resigned as Leader of the Official Opposition, a full 59 percent are satisfied with his performance over the past few months. NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (43%), and Tory leader, Joe Clark (44%), are well back of the two front-runners.

Chrйtien's approval rating is unchanged from our March poll. To contrast, Preston Manning's approval rating has jumped a statistically significant 5 points over the past 3 months, from 54 percent in March to its current 59 percent level. Alexa McDonough's rating meanwhile has dropped 5 points since March (48% to 43%). Joe Clark's image has inched up a single point this quarter (43 to 44%).

In all, 39 percent of the BC public disapproves of Chrйtien's job as PM, the same as our March BC Angus Reid poll. And, while 36 percent of people disapprove of Preston Manning, his negative rating has dropped a full 7 percentage points over the spring months (43% to 36%). Further, this is the first time since the 1997 federal election that more British Columbians disapprove of Prime Minister Chrйtien than are dissatisfied with Preston Manning.

Disapproval for Alexa McDonough has moved up 2 points (38% to 40%), while dissatisfaction with Joe Clark has remained the same (48%) since March of this year.

Canadian Alliance Move Further Ahead of Liberals In Approval Ratings (66% Vs. 59%)

Currently, 59 percent of British Columbians say they approve of the job the Liberal party is doing governing Canada, down slightly from March of this year (61%). To contrast, 40 percent disapprove of the Liberals' performance, a slight increase since last quarter (38%).

A strong majority of the BC population is satisfied with the job the Canadian Alliance party is doing in Ottawa as the Official Opposition. In all, 66 percent approve of the party's performance in this regard, and 30 percent disapprove. The party's approval rating has increased a marginal 2 points since March, but a full 10 points in the past six months (56% in December of 1999). Importantly, British Columbians are now more impressed with the Canadian Alliance than with the governing Liberals; the gap has widened to 7 points, from 3 points in March of this year.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200