Federal Vote Settles Back into Familiar Territory
Liberals and Conservatives are once again neck-and-neck, settling back into a familiar pattern that has held since the 2019 election.
Toronto, ON, February 27, 2023 – After movements last fall, when the Conservative Party enjoyed a September post-leadership convention bump, we are now back to the Liberals and Conservatives being locked in a statistical tie in voting intentions. This neck-and-neck result has held mostly steady since the 2019 election.
If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau would receive 33% (up 3 points) of the vote, on par with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party (33%, down 2 points). The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, would receive 18% (down 2 points) support while Yves-Francois Blanchet and the Bloc Quebecois would remain at 7% of the vote nationally, equating to 30% (down 2 points) in Quebec. Support for the Green Party under the renewed leadership of Elizabeth May stands at 4% (up 1 point), with Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party coming in at 3% (stable) and 1% saying would vote for some other party. Roughly one in ten (11%) are unsure of who they would vote for in the next federal election, while 7% say they would not vote or would spoil their ballot.
The Tories lead in every province west of Ontario, while the Liberals have regained a slight lead over the Tories in Ontario and have remained ahead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada:
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (35%) are nominally ahead (statistical tie) of the Liberals (33%), NDP (18%), Green (5%), PPC (3%) and other parties (1%).
- In Alberta, the Conservatives (50%) maintain their commanding lead over the NDP (23%), Liberals (16%), Green (4%) or other parties (5%).
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba (52%), the Conservative continue to enjoy a comfortable lead over the Liberals (21%), NDP (20%), PPC (3%), and Greens (4%) is solid.
- In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals (37%) have regained the lead over the Conservatives (34%), followed by the NDP (21%), the Greens (5%) and PPC (4%).
- In Quebec, the Liberals (35%) enjoy a short lead over the Bloc (30%), both well ahead of the Conservatives (20%), NDP (9%), PPC (3%), Greens (2%) and others (1%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (46%) lead the Conservatives (22%), NDP (17%), Greens (9%) and PPC (5%).
Looking at demographics, we find that:
- Liberals enjoy equal support among men (33%) and women (33%), while Conservatives are stronger among men (36%) than women (29%). The NDP garners more support among women (21%) than men (15%).
- Liberal support is also evenly distributed across age groups (18-34: 31%; 35-54: 35%; 55 and older: 33%). By contrast, Conservative support increases with age (18-34: 26%; 35-54: 34%; 55 and older: 37%), while NDP support is strongest among younger voters (18-34: 25%; 35-54: 15%; 55+: 16%).
- In terms of household income, Conservatives are stronger among those who tend to earn more (<$40K: 22%; $40K-<$60K: 31% vs. $60K-<$100K: 42%; $100K: 40%). Both Liberals and NDP tend to enjoy homogenous support among income groups.
About the Study
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 15 and 17, 2023, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,350 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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