In Final Week of Campaign, Ontarians Conflicted on
Who Would Make the Best Premier of Ontario:
Wynne (34%), Horwath (33%), Hudak (32%)
In a three-way tie, one in three Ontarians, overall, believe each of the three leaders - Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne (34%), NDP Leader Andrea Horwath (33%) and PC Leader Tim Hudak (32%) - would make the best Premier of Ontario. Among likely voters, who tilt towards the Progressive Conservatives, Hudak (37%) fares better than Wynne (33%) and Horwath (30%).
Ipsos Reid's poll released yesterday showed that among Ontarians who are decided voters, the horserace is in a dead heat with the Progressive Conservatives (35%) and Liberals (35%) tied, and the NDP trailing (26%). However, among likely voters - those who say that nothing short of an emergency could stop them from getting to the polling booth - the PCs (40%) take the lead over the Liberals (32%) and NDP (24%). This trend has been consistent throughout the election campaign.
Ontarians Desire a Majority Government, But Split on Which Party to Lead It...
Thinking about what their most desired outcome is on Election Day, four in ten (40%) Ontarians most prefer a Liberal government be elected, compared to 35% who prefer a PC government, and 25% who would like to see an NDP government. But some people don't actually vote for the party they want to win due to strategic voting concerns, or because they're trying to stop another party from winning, which is why these figures don't match the popular vote figures. In fact, 93% of Liberal voters actually want a Liberal government, compared to 91% of PC voters who actually want a PC government, and 76% of NDP voters who want an NDP government. In other words, one quarter (24%) of NDP voters do not actually want the NDP to win the election, meaning some other motivation is driving their vote, such as fear of another party winning or strategic voting at the riding level.
Ontarians, regardless of whether they are voters or not, would like to see a majority government on E-Day: two in three (67%) say that they would like some form of majority government, compared to one in three (33%) who prefer a minority government. The breakdown of Ontarians' preferences is below:
However, the data also reveal a slightly different story among those who are most motivated to vote, where desire for a PC-led government has more popularity than a Liberal-led government.
Ontarians Divided on whether they think Liberals will Win (50%), or Another Party (36% PC/14% NDP)...
Regardless of who they are voting for, and who they want to win, fully one half (50%) of Ontarians think that the Liberals will win the election, while half think they won't and either the PCs (36%) or the NDP (14%) will win. This could help explain the gap in motivation between Liberal supporters and Tory supporters. For example, nine in ten (90%) Liberal voters think that the Liberals will win the election - this could cause some of their supporters to be complacent and not go out to vote if they feel assured of victory anyway. In contrast, only 77% of PC supporters think the PCs will win (17% think the Liberals will win), which might be motivating PC supporters to make sure they show up to the ballot box to give them the best shot possible.
The Economy is the Driving Issue of the Campaign...
Thinking about the issue that Ontarians most want their vote to count for on Election Day, creating a better economy and jobs (30%) tops the list - well ahead of any other issue. Following behind is better healthcare (10%), lower taxes (10%), to ensure debt repayment and balancing the budget (9%), and for integrity in government and its leaders (8%). The full list of issues that Ontarians most want their vote to count for, along with the secondary issue, is listed below:
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between June 3 (after the debate) until June 6, 2014, on behalf of CTV and CP24. For this survey, a sample of 2,140 Ontarians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/-2.4 percentage points had all adults in Ontario been surveyed.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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