Ford Knocking on The Door of Historic Third Majority

On the eve of the provincial election, Premier Doug Ford is knocking on the door of a third majority. Among decided voters, nearly half (48%, +2 points compared to results after the leadership debate) say they would cast their ballot for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party. Three in ten (28%, +3 points) would vote for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, while 16% would vote for Marit Stiles and the NDP (-5 points). Eight percent would vote for Mike Schreiner’s Green Party of Ontario or another party on the ballot.  One in eleven (9%) Ontario voters remain undecided. The PCs lead among every demographic group studied and in each region of the province. Voter turnout will decide the size of the Tory majority, and the composition of the opposition benches. 

Compared to Ipsos’ final poll before the 2022 provincial election, Ford is seven points higher in the popular vote, suggesting an even larger majority government may be in the cards. Among decided voters, 60% say they are “absolutely certain” of their vote choice, with Tory voters (68%) most certain and Liberal (55%), NDP (48%) and Green voters (49%) less convinced of their choice.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between February 23 and 25, 2025, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n=1,501 eligible voters in Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n=1,001 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n=500 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.

Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.

“Game Changers” – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.  

Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
http://www.ipsos.com/