Ford Nation Little Help for Tories as Most (53%) Say Ford Being Mayor of Toronto Makes them Less Likely to Vote for the PCs in the Provincial Election, Just 9% More Likely
A majority (53%) of 1,719 Torontonians polled say Rob Ford being mayor of Toronto makes them less likely to vote for the Progressive Conservatives, while just 9% say they're more likely to vote for the PC Party, and four in ten (38%) say it doesn't impact their provincial vote. Even among current Tory supporters, just two in ten (21%) say that Rob Ford being mayor has made them more likely to vote Tory, while 12% of current Tory supporters are less likely to vote PC as a result. Current supporters of other parties are not swayed to vote PC as a result of Rob Ford being mayor.
Leadership Matters...
Leadership plays a role in election campaigns, and the "likability" of the late Jack Layton played a big part in the "orange surge" we saw in the federal campaign. When the 8,391 Ontarians polled were asked which of the party leaders they would most like to have over to their home for a barbecue, four in ten (37%) chose NDP Andrea Horwath, suggesting that Ontarians would like the opportunity to get to know her better. Fewer chose PC leader Tim Hudak (32%) or Liberal leader and current Premier Dalton McGuinty (31%).
Ms. Horwath appears to have momentum on her side. Since the election campaign officially started on September 7, one quarter (24%) of Ontarians say they have a more favourable view of Andrea Horwath, compared to just 7% who have a less favourable view, representing a net sore of +17.
By comparison, two in ten (17%) have a more favourable view of Tim Hudak over the last two weeks, while one in three (32%) have a less favourable view of him, a net score of -15. Similarly, just 15% have a more favourable view of Dalton McGuinty, while three in ten (27%) have a less favourable view, a net score of -12.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath appears to be helping her party's fortunes in the polls. In fact, if she wasn't the leader of the NDP and somebody else were leader instead, two in ten (16%) say they'd be less likely to vote for the NDP, while just 8% would be more likely. In contrast, if Mr. Hudak weren't leader of the PC party, one quarter (23%) say they'd be more likely to vote PC, while just 14% would be less likely. A similar story for Dalton McGuinty: one quarter (23%) would be more likely to vote Liberal if he weren't leader, while 16% would be less likely to vote Grit.
Three quarters (74%) of Ontarians `agree' (28% strongly/47% somewhat) that `Ontario is ready for a female Premier', while just one quarter (26%) `disagree' (6% strongly/19% somewhat) with this premise. Not surprisingly, women (78%) are more likely to agree than men (70%), and younger people are more likely to agree than older Ontarians.
There's still ample time for impressions to change, however, and with the leader's debate approaching many Ontarians will be tuning into the election more closely. Just one in three (35%) say they're `paying close attention to the provincial election campaign', while most (55%) maintain that they'll `pay closer attention to the campaign around the debates and closer to the end'. Just one in ten (10%) will tune out completely, admitting that they're `not going to pay attention to this election campaign at all'.
To Have or Have Not...
Since the recession and the negative impact it had on the Ontario job market, particularly in the manufacturing sector, Ontario has been considered a "have-not" province, meaning that it receives equalization payments from the federal government. Despite this official status within Confederation, a majority (59%) `disagrees' (16% strongly/43% somewhat) that `Ontario is a have-not province', while four in ten (41%) `agree' (10% strongly/32% somewhat) that it is.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 16-20 2011, on behalf Global Television, CFRB Newtalk 1010, and the Ottawa Citizen. For this survey, a sample of 8,391 Ontarians from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and political composition to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 1.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Ontario been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]
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