FOUR-IN-TEN (40%) CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT THE CANADIAN ECONOMY WILL GET WORSE OVER THE COMING YEAR, AS SLIGHT RISE IN OPTIMISM RETURNS (23% SAY IT WILL GET BETTER)
At the same time, job anxiety (21%) - the worry that they or someone in their household will lose their job - increases slightly, up three points (from 18% since October). However, this range of anxiety is below the level experienced during the last recession in the early 1990's, when the job anxiety index ranged from a low of 26% to a high of 35%.
These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between November 13th and 15th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.
Decreasing slightly (down two points since October), four-in-ten (40%) Canadians feel that the national economy will worsen over the next year.
- Residents of British Columbia (48% +5) appear to be the most pessimistic, followed by those in Alberta (45% +9) and Ontario (42% +1), while residents in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (36% +2), Quebec (35% -13) and Atlantic Canada (34% -9) are less pessimistic regarding the national economy.
- Younger (47%) Canadians are more pessimistic than middle aged (40%) or older (32%) residents regarding the economic outlook.
- Canadians from households with incomes of less than $30,000 (43%) are slightly more likely to feel the economy will worsen, compared to those with household incomes of between $30,000 and just under $60,000 (40%) and those with over $60,000 household incomes (39%).
- Women (43%) are more likely to say that the economy will worsen over the next year than men (38%).
At the same time, the number who believe that the economy will improve over the next 12 months increases four points since October to one-quarter (23%) of Canadians.
- Ontarians (27%) and those in Atlantic Canada (25%) and Quebec (22%) are more likely to say that the national economy will improve over the next year. This compares to residents of British Columbia (20%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (20%) and Alberta (19%).
- Canadians 55 years of age and older (28%) are more likely to be optimistic about the economy than those between 35 and 54 (22%) and between 18 and 34 (21%).
- Residents from the highest household income (26%) group are more likely than those in the middle income (22%) or lowest household income (20%) group to believe that the economy will improve.
Just over one-third (36%, down one point since October), express the view that the national economy will generally stay the same over the coming year.
- This view is strongest among those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%), Quebec (42%) and Atlantic Canada (41%). This compares to those in Alberta (35%), British Columbia (31%) and Ontario (31%).
- Older (39%) and middle aged (37%) Canadians are more likely than their younger (32%) counterparts to believe that the economy will maintain the status quo over the next year.
At the same time, job anxiety (21%) - the worry that they or someone in their household might lose their job - has increased three points (81%) since October. This compares with 78% who are not worried about personally or someone in their household losing their job. While job anxiety is up only marginally nationally, it appears that those in the Western most regions of the country are experiencing the most concern, in addition to the highest increase in anxiety since October.
- Job anxiety is strongest in British Columbia (30%) an increase of nine points since October. Albertans' concern increases 13 points to 23%, while those in Quebec (21%; +3), Atlantic Canada (20%; +6) also increase. Concern in Ontario (20%; +1) is virtually identical to the rate in October. Saskatchewan and Manitoba (11%) is the only region to experience a decrease (-11 points) in job anxiety when compared to October.
- Middle aged (28%) Canadians appear are more worried about personally losing or someone else in their house losing their job. This compares to 22% of younger Canadians and 10% of older Canadians.
To view the complete media release and tables, please download the PDF files.
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For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900
