The Future Of Alberta's Conservative Party

Calgary, AB - Amid much recent speculation as to when Ralph Klein will step aside as the premier of Alberta, a new Ipsos Reid/Calgary Herald poll finds that Albertans are divided on this issue. In all, 50% of Albertans say they would prefer to see Klein `step aside at the end of his term in about three years'. Meanwhile, a similar proportion (47%) says they would prefer to see Klein `step aside some time in the next year to make room for new leadership'.

In Calgary, the race for who Calgarians would like to see replace Klein as the next Conservative leader and premier of Alberta is wide open. Among the people who have been touted as potential replacements, Jim Dinning currently leads the pack, with 20% of Calgarians saying they would most like to see Dinning replace Klein. Gary Mar places second, mentioned by 12% of Calgarians. However, the poll also shows that with 38% of Calgarians saying they `don't know enough to say' who they would like to see replace Klein at this point, it is clear that the race to replace Klein as the next leader of Alberta's Conservative party is still wide open.

These are the findings of two Ipsos Reid polls. The first question was fielded between August 18th and August 23rd, 2005, and is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult Albertans. Results based on a sample size of 800 are considered accurate to within 177 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Albertan population been polled. The second question was fielded between September 2nd and September 7th, 2005 (no fielding on Labour Day), and is based on a randomly selected sample of 500 adult Calgarians. Results based on a sample size of 500 are considered accurate to within 177 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Calgary been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta and Calgary population according to the 2001 Census data.

Albertans Divided Over Whether Ralph Klein Should Stay For The Remainder Of His Term (50%) Or Retire Early (47%)

As Alberta's premier for the last twelve years, Ralph Klein's recent statement that he may retire some time during his current term has lead to much speculation as to when he will step aside. Overall, half (50%) of Albertans say they would prefer to see Klein `step aside at the end of his term in about three years'. However, a similar proportion (47%) says they would prefer to see Klein `step aside in the next year to make room for new leadership'. These numbers are unchanged from what has been reported previously (the proportion saying Klein should `step aside in about three years' stood at 50% in June 2005 and 51% in March 2005; meanwhile the proportion saying Klein should `step aside within the next year' stood at 47% in June 2005 and 42% in March 2005).

• Younger Albertans are the most likely to say Klein should `step aside at the end of his term in about three years', mentioned by 57% of those aged 18 to 34. In comparison, only 49% of those aged 35 to 54 and 42% of those aged 55 plus feel this way.
• Albertans with less formal education are also more likely to say Klein should `step aside at the end of his term in about three years' (61% of those with a high school education or less and 51% of those with some post secondary education, compared to 38% of university graduates).
• Albertans living in Calgary (47%) or Edmonton (47%) are the least likely to say Klein should `step aside at the end of his term in about three years'. In comparison, 56% of those living elsewhere in the province feel this way.
• Conservative supporters are the most likely to say Klein should stay for the full length of his current term (69%, compared to only 32% of Liberal supporters, 36% of NDP supporters, and 42% of Alberta Alliance supporters).

In Calgary, Jim Dinning Leads The Pack Of Potential Replacement Candidates (20%) - But Still A Lot Of Votes In Play (38% `Do Not Know Enough To Say')

When presented with a list of potential candidates to replace Ralph Klein as the next Conservative leader and premier of Alberta, two-in-ten (20%) Calgarians select the former provincial Finance Minister Jim Dinning. Another 12% choose the current Minister of Community Development Gary Mar as their preferred choice for the next leader of Alberta's Conservative party. However, the poll shows that a large proportion of Calgarians have not yet made up their minds as to whom they would like to see replace Klein as the next Conservative leader and premier of Alberta, with 38% saying they `don't know enough to say'.

• Dinning supporters are more likely to be middle-aged (24% of 35 to 54 year olds) or older (34% of those aged 55 plus), have lived in Calgary longer (24% of those who have lived in the area for 11 to 30 years and 28% of those who have lived in the area for more than 30 years), and be homeowners (23%).
• Mar supporters are more likely to live in the Southwest (15%) or the Northwest (15%), have lived in Calgary longer (15% of those who have lived in the area for 11 to 30 years and 17% of those who have lived in the area for more than 30 years), and be homeowners (15%).
• Those currently undecided in their preference for the next Conservative leader and premier of Alberta are more likely to live in the Northeast (46%), be younger (48% of 18 to 34 year olds), have lived in Calgary for a shorter period of time (49% of those who have lived in the area for 10 years or less), and rent their home (46%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Peter Weylie
Vice-President
Ipsos Reid Corporation
403.390.7052
[email protected]

Ipsos Reid
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