Glimmer Of Hope In Farmer's Economic Outlook
Perceptions of the current state of the agriculture economy have not changed much over the past few months. Less than one in a hundred Canadian farmers consider the agriculture economy to be "very strong" (1% rating 1 or 2 on a seven pint scale) while almost six in ten feel it is "very weak" (58% rating 6 or 7 on a seven point scale).
- Nearly seven in ten farmers in Saskatchewan (69%) rate the current agriculture economy as "very weak", in contrast to British Columbia, where one in three farmers (34%) feel it is "very weak".
- Since September, farmers in Manitoba and Ontario had the most negative change in their view of the current status of the agriculture economy.
A slight shift in optimism appears in the outlook for the next six months. Nearly seven in ten farmers (69%) think the agriculture economy will either remain the same or improve compared with just over six in ten who felt this way in September (62%).
- Producers in Alberta are most likely to expect the agriculture economy to strengthen (16%), double the number reported in Quebec and Manitoba (8% each).
- Producers in Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario are more likely than others to have a better economic outlook than they had in September while producers in Quebec record the most negative changes in their outlook for the next six months.
- Horticulture and Viticulture producers continue to have the most positive view of the current state of the agriculture economy, while Beef producers continue to have the most negative view. Dairy producers record the largest negative change in their perceptions of the current economic situation.
- In response to positive signals around the re-opening of the U.S. border to live cattle, beef producers show the most dramatic improvement in their outlook for the next six months. Nearly one in five Beef producers (19%, up 6 points from September) expect the agriculture economy will be stronger.
At the national level, a couple of bright spots have emerged, suggesting the agriculture economy may be turning a corner. The number of producers who expect to get out of farming in the next six months has dropped significantly. Less than one if twenty farmers (4%) now intend to transfer their operation to someone else, wind down their operation or sell their operation outright, compared to one in ten in September (10%). Also, intentions to purchase land are up despite lower expectations around other capital purchases. One in eight farmers (12%) said they are likely to purchase land in the next six months.
These results are part of the findings of the Canadian Farm Trends Report poll conducted by Ipsos-Reid Agribusiness, Food and Animal Health between October 20th and November 6th, 2004. Telephone interviews were completed with a representative randomly selected sample of 875 commercial farmers with farm sales of $50,000 or more. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within +/-3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian commercial farm population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and farm type compositions reflect the actual Canadian commercial farm population according to the 2001 Census data.
To view the November 2004 press release for The Canadian Farm Trends Report, click here.
To learn more about the Agribusiness, Food and Animal Health Division of Ipsos, please go to www.ipsos.ca/reid/agrifood/.
For more information on this news release or the Canadian Farm Trends Report, please contact:
Curtis Johnson
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid
Agribusiness, Food and Animal Health
tel. 204.949.3110
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Ipsos-Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader and the country's leading provider of public opinion research. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos-Reid employs more than 300 researcher professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in Canada, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and on-line panels. Ipsos-Reid's Canadian marketing research and public affairs practices are staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, offering the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada - including the Ipsos Trend Report, the leading source of public opinion in the country - all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Ipsos-Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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