Green Shifting: Dion's Plan Takes a Tumble Amidst Withering Tory Attack

Ottawa, ON - A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that Stephane Dion's "Green Shift" carbon tax initiative has taken a seven point tumble in support -- down from 52% in early July when the plan was first introduced to 45% now.

The new poll, taken as a federal election appears imminent and against a backdrop of a concentrated Conservative pre-election advertising air war and verbal assault against Mr. Dion's environment policy, shows that opposition to the plan has risen from 42% to 51% (up 9 points), with 4% of Canadians indicating that they don't know how they feel about the plan.

A majority (51%) of Canadians, upon hearing a description of Mr. Dion's plan, now "oppose" (30% strongly/20% somewhat) his approach. Conversely, four in ten (45%) now "support" (17 % strongly/28 % somewhat) the plan.

However, while opposition to the plan is rising overall, there doesn't appear to be much residual benefit to the Harper Conservatives in attempting to move voters to their party in order to counter the liberal initiative: while 43% of Canadians indicated early July they would likely vote `specifically for the Harper Conservatives to block the Dion plan' if the Prime Minister decided to call an election and fight Mr. Dion over his environmental plan, the number of Canadians willing to consider that entreat has dropped to 40%. A majority (54%, unchanged) of Canadians still reject the premise with 6% undecided.

But in seat rich Ontario, where the prime battleground is likely to be, there has been some traction: perhaps as a result of the advertising bombardment by the Conservatives, 43% now indicate that they are considering this tactic of voting with the Conservatives to block the plan (up eight points since early July).

The `Green Shift' Plan is Shifting ...

• Support is highest in Atlantic Canada (52%, down one point).
• Just half (49%, down seven points) of those living in Quebec and Ontario (49%, down six points) support Mr. Dion's plan.
• In British Columbia, only 43% (down three points) support the plan, which now has a majority (52%) who oppose it.
• In Alberta, the province is thoroughly opposed to Mr. Dion's plan: whereas only 46% had opposed the plan in early July that has now risen to 64%; support for the plan has plummeted from 46% then to 33% today.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba opposition to the plan has risen from 57% to 62% with only 29% supporting it.

Support by other key demographics:

• Younger Canadians (62%, unchanged), aged 18 to 34, are much more likely to support the plan than are middle-aged Canadians (44%, down five points), aged 35 to 54, or older Canadians (34%, down 11 points).
• Women (49%, down seven points) are significantly more likely than men (42%, down five points) to support Mr. Dion's plan.

Four in ten (40%) Canadians Likely to Block the Plan by Voting

Specifically for Mr. Harper's Conservatives...

Four in ten (40%, down three points) Canadians say that they are `likely' (23% very/17% somewhat) to specifically vote for the Conservatives in order to block Mr. Dion's plan if an election is fought over this issue.

However, this sentiment varies among segments and regions:

• Half of Albertans (50%, down 17 points) and residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (48%, down 14 points) oppose the Dion plan.
• A minority of Atlantic Canadians (44%, down eight points) and British Columbians (37%, down eight points) say they'd be likely to vote specifically for the Conservatives
• Where there appears to be some traction, perhaps as a result of the advertising bombardment by the Conservatives, is in Ontario where 43% indicate that they are considering this tactic of voting with the Conservatives to block the plan (up eight points)
• But in Quйbec is another matter: whereas 34% percent of those in Quйbec indicated that they would possibly vote for the Conservatives in order to block the Liberal plan, it's now down to 29% (a drop of five points)
• Older Canadians (46%) are more likely than younger Canadians (38%) and middle aged Canadians (35%) to say they're likely to use this tactic.
• Men (42%, down four points) are more likely than women (38%, down one point) to suggest that they'd be likely to vote in this manner.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from August 26 to August 28, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1003 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.

In 2007, Ipsos generated global revenues of e927.2 million ($1.27 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext - Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP