Grits (32%) And Tories (33%) In A Statistical Tie, But Grits Have Big Lead in Battleground Ontario

Ottawa, ON - A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television reveals that the Conservatives (33%) and the Liberals (32%) are statistically tied in vote support across the country. Since the last Ipsos Reid poll in June, the Conservatives have dropped three points nationally, while the Liberals have gained two points across the country.

The NDP has the support of 13% (down 2 points) of decided voters if an election were to be held tomorrow, while the Green Party is receiving support from 10% of Canadians (up 1 point). Six percent (6%) of voters remain undecided.

Within Quebec, the Bloc (46% in Quebec, 11% in Canada) has a large lead over both the Grits (21%) and the Tories (20%), while the NDP (7%) and Green Party (6%) also trail significantly.

In battleground Ontario, the Liberals (42%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (30%), who are both keeping their distance ahead of the NDP (15%) and Green Party (11%).

The Liberals are experiencing some initial support with the unveiling of their `Green Shift' Plan. A majority (52%) of Canadians, upon hearing a description of Mr. Dion's plan, `support' (17% strongly/ 35% somewhat) his approach. Conversely, four in ten (42%) `oppose' (25% strongly/16% somewhat) the plan, while 6% don't know what to think about it.

However, there also appears to be some initial backlash against the `Green Shift' Plan, with four in ten (43%) Canadians indicating that they would be `likely' (22% very/20% somewhat) to vote `specifically for the Harper Conservatives to block the Dion plan' if the Prime Minister decided to call an election and fight Mr. Dion over his environmental plan. On the other hand, a majority (54%) says they would not be likely (17% not very/36% not at all) to act in this manner.

Upon hearing the Prime Minister's initial reaction to the plan, that it is `crazy' and `insane', and that it would `screw everybody across the country', four in ten (39%) Canadians `agree' (20% strongly/20% somewhat) with his assessment. However, a majority (55%) would `disagree' (24% strongly/31% somewhat) with Mr. Harper's comments.

Thinking about how the `Green Shift' plan would impact the lives of Canadians if Mr. Dion won the next election and implemented the plan, Canadians have mixed reviews:

• Two thirds (65%) believe it's likely we would see `a major increase in the taxes paid' by families.
• Six in ten (62%) say it's likely that we would see `reduced pollution in Canada'.
• Six in ten (62%) believe it's likely that we would see `increased tension between Western Canada, and Quebec and Ontario' as a result of this plan.
• A majority (56%) believes it's likely that we would see `major job creation by green industries in Canada'.
• Nearly one half (45%) says it's likely the tax system would be fairer as a result of implementing the `Green Shift' plan.
• Only three in ten (29%) say it's likely that we'd see `reduced poverty in Canada' if this plan were implemented.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television from July 8 to July 10, 2008. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

Support for `Green Shift' Plan Strongest in Eastern Canada...

While a majority (52%) of Canadians `support' (17% strongly/35% somewhat) the `Green Shift' plan, support is driven by disproportionately high levels in Eastern Canada.

• A majority of those living in Quebec (56%), Ontario (55%) and Atlantic Canada (53%) support Mr. Dion's approach.
• In British Columbia, only 46% support the plan, which is still more than the four in ten (40%) who oppose it.
• In Alberta, the province is split on whether it supports (46%) the plan or opposes it (47%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a majority of residents oppose (57%) the plan, while only four in ten (36%) support it.

Support by other key demographics:

• Younger Canadians (62%), aged 18 to 34, are much more likely to support the plan than are middle-aged Canadians (49%), aged 35 to 54, or older Canadians (45%), aged 55 and above.
• Women (56%) are significantly more likely than men (47%) to support Mr. Dion's approach.

Four in ten (43%) Canadians Likely to Block the Plan by Voting Specifically for Harper Conservatives...

Four in ten (43%) Canadians say that they are `likely' (22% very/20% somewhat) to vote specifically for the Conservatives in order to block Mr. Dion's plan if an election were fought over this issue. However, this sentiment is stronger among some demographics than others:

• A majority of Albertans (67%), residents of Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%) and Atlantic Canadians (52%) say they'd be likely to vote specifically for the Conservatives if an election were fought over the `Green Shift' plan.
• A minority of British Columbians (45%), Ontarians (35%) and Quebecers (34%) say they'd be likely do the same.
• Middle-aged Canadians (45%) are more likely than older Canadians (43%) and younger Canadians (39%) to say they're likely use this tactic.
• Men (46%) are more likely than women (39%) to suggest that they'd be likely to vote in this manner.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416-509-8460
[email protected]

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