Grits (34%) and Tories (33%) Once Again
Locked in Tie, NDP (23%) Steady

Toronto, ON - The four-point lead that the Conservative enjoyed just last month has evaporated, with a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Global News revealing the federal Liberals and Conservatives are once again tied. This tight race appears to be the natural resting point for public opinion in Canada. When one party jumps out ahead, the advantage doesn't last long and the two leading parties return to a tie.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau would receive 34% of the decided vote (up 3 points since January), while Harper's governing Conservatives would receive (33%, down 2 points) of the vote. In the last year, as Canadians continue to acquaint themselves with Justin Trudeau, most of vote-support fluctuation has been with the Liberal Party, ranging between 31% and 38% of the popular vote. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are the known quantity and have experienced relative stability between 31% and 35%.

Thomas Mulcair and the NDP would receive 23% of the vote (down 1 point) - a figure that has remained remarkably consistent over the last year, fluctuating by only 1 point. The Bloc, led by Mario Beaulieu, would receive 6% (unchanged) of the vote nationally (26% in Quebec). Other parties, including the Green Party led by Elizabeth May, would receive 3% of the vote (down 1 point). One in ten (13%) remain undecided.

The data reveal that the close race nationally is also reflected in some of the key seat-rich regions of the country as well, particularly Ontario and Quebec:

• In Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) and Liberals (37%) are in a dead heat, while the NDP (23%) and other parties trail (3%).
• In Quebec, a three-way race is emerging among the Liberals (31%), NDP (27%) and Bloc (26%). The governing Conservatives (15%) trail along with other parties (1%).
• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (39%) are leading the Liberals (34%), with the NDP (21%) and other parties (6%) behind.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (54%), expectedly, have a large lead over the Liberals (27%), NDP (16%) and other parties (4%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (45%) hold a healthy lead over the NDP (27%) and Liberals (26%), while other parties lag (2%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberal (47%) lead over the NDP (26%), Conservatives (24%) and other parties (3%) is strong.

We want to know what you think about federal politics and what our latest polling numbers mean to you. Have your say at In My Humble Opinion (IMHOIpsos) now! IMHOIpsos is a discussion forum for Canadians to share their opinions on politics, social issues, the economy, and more. Join us: http://imho.ipsos.ca/

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These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between February 17 and 23, 2015 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 2,650 Canadians (including 2,128 decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Reid
Global Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
[email protected]

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of e1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

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