Heading into Debate, One in Three (34%) Think McGuinty will Win, Placing Ahead of Hudak (24%) and Horwath (14%), But Three in Ten (28%) Unsure of Who will Win
Ontarians will be looking to the leaders to give their best ideas on issues Ontario is grappling with. Currently, Ontarians are deadlocked on which leader they believe offers the best ideas and policies: 30% Tim Hudak, 30% Dalton McGuinty and 25% Andrea Horwath. One in ten (14%) are unsure of which leader offers the best ideas and policies.
On the issue of who sounds and acts most like a Premier, current Premier Dalton McGuinty (53%) is well in the lead, compared to Tim Hudak (24%) and Andrea Horwath (13%), while one in ten (10%) don't know.
In terms of likability (a trait that got Jack Layton and the NDP far in the federal campaign), Andrea Horwath comes out on top (44%), followed by Tim Hudak (24%) and Dalton McGuinty (21%), while one in ten (11%) don't know which leader they find most likeable.
Ontarians are also clear on which leader they think is the most visually attractive, with Andrea Horwath (42%) placing well ahead of Dalton McGuinty (21%) and Tim Hudak (14%), while one quarter (23%) are unsure of who they find most attractive.
There are three issues that rise to the top when Ontarians list the most important issues for them in this campaign, and these are likely the issues to be tackled in the debate tonight: the economy and jobs (35%), healthcare (14%) and taxes (14%). Other issues on their radar include debt/deficit reduction (7%), social services (6%), government accountability (5%), the environment (4%), and education (4%). Different leaders are leading on best ideas and policies for dealing with various issues, heading into the debate:
- Economy - Dalton McGuinty (34%), Tim Hudak (34%), Andrea Horwath (13%), Don't know (19%).
- Healthcare - Dalton McGuinty (33%), Andrea Horwath (24%), Tim Hudak (21%), don't know (21%).
- Taxes - Tim Hudak (38%), Dalton McGuinty (23%), Andrea Horwath (19%), don't know (21%).
- Education - Dalton McGuinty (40%), Tim Hudak (20%), Andrea Horwath (19%), don't know (21%).
- Environment - Andrea Horwath (36%), Dalton McGuinty (23%), Tim Hudak (14%), don't know (28%).
- Debt/Deficit reduction - Tim Hudak (37%), Dalton McGuinty (25%), Andrea Horwath (13%), don't know (25%).
- Government accountability - Tim Hudak (28%), Andrea Horwath (23%), Dalton McGuinty (19%), don't know (30%).
- Social services - Andrea Horwath (39%), Dalton McGuinty (23%), Tim Hudak (17%), don't know (21%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on September 27, 2011 from 10am until 4pm on behalf Global Television. The pre-debate survey was conducted among 1,687 Ontarian adults. Respondents were selected via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of 3,730 voters who agreed to participate in the debate survey. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of adults in Ontario been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
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