Heading into the Debate, Premier Wynne (32%) is Seen as the Front-Runner for Victory, Placing Ahead of Hudak (24%) and Horwath (17%), But Three in Ten (27%) Unsure of
Who Will Win
The poll of over 2,000 likely voters who plan to watch the debate, conducted during the day of June 3rd, reveals that one in three (32%) think that Premier Kathleen Wynne will win the debate, placing her ahead of her rivals Tim Hudak (24%) and Andrea Horwath (17%). Three in ten (27%) viewers are unsure of who will win the debate.
Debate night is the only time during the campaign that all the leaders can discuss their platforms and policy ideas in a common forum. Ontarians will be looking to the leaders to give their best ideas on the various issues Ontario is currently grappling with. Heading into the debate, Premier Wynne (31%) and Tim Hudak (30%) are tied as the person who viewers believe has the best ideas and policies, while Andrea Horwath (24%) isn't far behind. One in seven (15%) do not know.
Looking at who sounds and acts most like a Premier, current Premier Kathleen Wynne (42%) is well ahead of her rivals Tim Hudak (28%) and Andrea Horwath (18%), who lag behind. One in ten (11%) don't know.
In terms of likability, defined as who Ontarians would most like to go out for beer or coffee with, Andrea Horwath (39%) tops Kathleen Wynne (28%) and Tim Hudak (20%), while one in ten (12%) don't know which leader they find most likeable.
Ontarians are also clear on which leader they think is the most visually attractive, with Andrea Horwath (51%) placing well ahead of Tim Hudak (15%) Kathleen Wynne (12%). Two in ten (22%) don't know which of the leaders they find to be most visually attractive.
There is one issue that rises to the top when viewers are asked what issue they want political leaders and candidates to be talking about - the economy (30%). Other issues of importance include healthcare (10%), government accountability (10%), debt/deficit reduction (8%), social services (8%), taxes (7%), energy/electricity (7%), public transit (5%), education (4%), poverty (4%), public services (2%), environment (2%), crime (1%) or some other issue (1%). Two percent (2%) don't know which issue is most important to them.
Thinking about some of these issues, viewers were asked to indicate which party leader they think has the best ideas and policies for dealing with each:
- Economy - Tim Hudak (33%), Kathleen Wynne (28%), Andrea Horwath (18%), don't know (20%).
- Healthcare - Kathleen Wynne (30%), Andrea Horwath (26%), Tim Hudak (20%), don't know (24%).
- Government accountability - Tim Hudak (31%), Andrea Horwath (23%), Kathleen Wynne (19%), don't know (28%).
- Debt/Deficit reduction - Tim Hudak (36%), Kathleen Wynne (23%), Andrea Horwath (16%), don't know (25%).
- Social services - Andrea Horwath (32%), Kathleen Wynne (28%), Tim Hudak (18%), don't know (23%).
- Taxes - Tim Hudak (34%), Kathleen Wynne (24%), Andrea Horwath (21%), don't know (22%).
- Education - Kathleen Wynne (34%), Andrea Horwath (22%), Tim Hudak (20%), don't know (24%).
- Environment - Kathleen Wynne (24%), Andrea Horwath (24%), Tim Hudak (15%), don't know (37%).
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on June 3rd, 2014, from 9am until 4pm on behalf CTV News and CP24. The pre-debate survey was conducted among 2,068 Ontarian adults. Respondents were selected via the Ipsos I-Say Online Panel, Ipsos Reid's national online panel. The sample was drawn from a pre-recruited panel of 4,152 Ontarians who say they will vote on Election Day and indicated that they would watch the leaders' debate. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. In this case, the pre-debate poll can be considered accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had the entire population of voters who will watch the debate been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
416.324.2002
[email protected]
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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